The Houston Astros (61-40) and Seattle Mariners (55-46) play Tuesday at 10:10 p.m. ET to continue a three-game series at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Lance McCullers, Jr., is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. Across 16 starts this season, he is 7-2 with a 3.04 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 through 91 2/3 IP.
McCullers gets a ton of ground balls (54.4%) which helps him keep the ball in the yard. He enters this start — at home-run-suppressant T-Mobile — on a string of five straight turns without yielding a round-tripper.
RHP Chris Flexen is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 9-4 with a 3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 through 104 2/3 IP spanning 18 starts.
Flexen was an underwhelming swingman in three seasons with the New York Mets (2017-19) before coming over to Seattle. The 27-year-old has been ultra-consistent in notching a 1.94 ERA over his last 8 starts, as he held opponents to 3 or fewer earned runs in each outing over that stretch.
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Astros at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Mariners +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+110) | Mariners +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Astros 6, Mariners 4
Money line (ML)
Seattle won Monday’s opener 11-8 despite the pitching staff serving up 3 Astros home runs and the offense combining for 14 strikeouts. The win marked the Mariners’ fourth in a row; all have come at home where Seattle is now 7-2 over its last nine contests.
For Houston, Monday’s loss snapped a three-game winning streak. The Astros are 6-4 since the All-Star break despite clocking a below-average .700 OPS over that stretch. On the year, the Astros and Mariners have split eight head-to-head meetings.
In terms of Pythagorean record (theoretical wins and losses based on runs scored vs. runs against), no team is further from its actual mark than the Mariners. Seattle has scored 4.18 runs per game while allowing 4.66, yet is 9 games over .500. That puts Seattle on a fade footing almost regardless of who is starting on the mound.
Throw in McCullers and his 2.66 ERA away from home as well as some past success against this group (.612 OPS vs. current Seattle batters), and Houston becomes the lean.
Peg the run line as a better value and PASS on the money line.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BACK HOUSTON -1.5 (+110).
Over/Under (O/U)
Both bullpens are on a roll of late with July ERAs of 3.51 or better, but neither of those figures is supportable. Throw in some fade of both starters, and we get to some value on the OVER 8 (-115).
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