The San Francisco Giants (64-39) host the Houston Astros (64-40) Saturday for the second game of their three-game interleague set at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Astros won the first game of the series 9-6 as 2B Jose Altuve went 3-for-6 with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs. Also, Houston’s lineup nuked San Francisco’s bullpen by plating 6 runs across 4 innings of work.
Season series: Astros lead 1-0.
RHP Zack Greinke makes his 22nd start for the Astros. He is 10-3 with a 3.48 ERA (126 2/3 IP, 49 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9.
- Last outing: Win, 3-1, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 4 K Sunday against the Texas Rangers.
- vs. Giants on the current roster (177 PA): 2.02 FIP with a .212 batting average (BA), .240 wOBA, .289 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 26.6 K% and 86.3 mph exit velocity (EV).
LHP Alex Wood is San Francisco’s projected starter. He is 9-3 with a 3.65 ERA (93 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 17 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 6-1, with 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 8 K Sunday against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
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Astros at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Giants -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros +1.5 (-200) | Giants -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Astros 7, Giants 3
Money line (ML)
Let’s go with the hot hand and BET an ASTROS (+100) team that’s won eight of their last 10 games.
Since the All-Star Game, Houston’s lineup is 10th or better in wRC+, wOBA and WAR while San Francisco’s lineup ranks 19th or worse in each of those categories.
Also, Greinke has been more effective on the road this season and has always pitched well at San Francisco’s home ballpark. Greinke is 5-0 on the road with a 2.25 ERA (60 IP, 15 ER), 0.85 WHIP and 4.8 K/BB through nine starts.
For his career, Greinke is 6-0 with a 1.19 ERA (53 IP, 7 ER), 0.89 WHIP and 5.4 K/BB in eight starts at San Francisco’s ballpark.
TAKE the ASTROS (+100) for 1 unit.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the ASTROS -1.5 (+165) on the alternate line for a tiny wager, if at all, because Houston has clear edges in the starting pitching and hitting matchups and San Francisco’s bullpen is taxed from throwing a lot of pitches recently.
However, the Giants covered the spread in eight of their 12 games as home underdogs this season and the Astros bullpen has been the weakest facet of Houston’s game throughout the season.
The best play in this game is to stick with the Astros (+100) on the money line, but Houston is clearly the right side so I don’t hate SPRINKLING on ASTROS -1.5 (+165).
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” toward the Over 8.5 (-105) as a “contrarian play” against a majority of the market that’s taking the Under. Since that’s my only handicapping angle I’ll stay away from the total in Astros-Giants.
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