The Houston Astros (63-40) kick off a three-game interleague set at the San Francisco Giants (64-38) Friday in Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Houston has won seven of its last nine games, including three straight series victories. The Astros took two of three from the visiting Cleveland Indians (July 19-21), swept the Texas Rangers in three (July 23-25) and won two of three at the Seattle Mariners (Monday through Wednesday).
San Francisco won the rubber match of their three-game set with the Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday. It was the Giants’ second series win against their long-time rivals in the past 10 games.
LHP Framber Valdez is Houston’s projected starter. Valdez is 6-2 with a 2.97 ERA (66 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 11 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 4-1, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 6 BB and 4 K against the Texas Rangers Saturday.
- 2021 road splits: 3-2 with a 2.94 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.10 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB rate in five starts.
RHP Kevin Gausman takes the hill for the Giants. Gausman is 9-4 with a 2.21 ERA (122 IP, 30 ER), 0.92 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 20 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 10-2, with 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 4 BB and 2 K Saturday vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- 2021 home splits: 4-2 with a 3.10 ERA (52 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 0.84 WHIP and 4.3 K/BB rate in eight starts.
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Astros at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 5:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Giants -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros +1.5 (-200) | Giants -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Astros 6, Giants 5
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the ASTROS (+105) for a half unit because the Giants’ Gausman has looked shaky in recent starts. He’s allowed 8 earned runs in just 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts.
FanGraphs graded Gausman’s last start against the lowly Pirates a 19. The previous outing was a 32 against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Also, San Francisco’s lineup is around league average against left-handed pitching in wRC+, OPS and wOBA but has the third-worst hard-contact rate. Houston’s lineup is clearly the top in MLB vs. right-handed pitching and ranks in the top 3 in wRC+, wOBA, OPS and BB/K rate.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Astros +1.5 (-200) is way out of my price range despite Houston’s 8-4 ATS record as a road underdog this season. I only “lean” to the Astros outright and don’t like them enough to buy Houston’s overpriced insurance.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the OVER 7.5 (-115) for 1 unit as my favorite play in this game because Houston is 9-2-1 O/U as a road underdog this year and San Francisco is 19-17-1 O/U as a home favorite.
Not only has Gausman regressed from his early-season dominance in the past two starts, but Valdez has control issues that could lead to San Francisco’s lineup putting up some crooked numbers in innings.
Valdez grades in the 26th percentile in BB%. He was pulled while flirting with a no-hitter during his last start because he walked 6 in 6 innings and threw 99 pitches.
If Valdez duplicates that performance against the Giants, he could be in trouble because San Francisco’s lineup has the highest BB/K rate vs. left-handed pitching and has hit the ninth-most home runs against lefties.
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