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The Houston Astros (12-24) and New York Yankees (25-13) close out a 3-game series in the Bronx Thursday. The opening pitch at Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 5:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Yankees lead 6-0
Houston got off to a shaky start this season, and that start included the Astros getting swept at home by New York in a season-opening 4-game set. Now, after Tuesday and Wednesday losses at Yankee Stadium, Houston heads into the Thursday series finale looking to avoid a 2024 0-for against the Yanks.
New York has not lost since last Thursday. Over their last 11 games, the Yankees are 8-3 with a plus-31 run differential.
Astros at Yankees projected starters
RHP Ronel Blanco vs. RHP Marcus Stroman
Blanco (3-0, 2.09 ERA) is lined up for his 7th start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 38 2/3 innings.
- Owns a 3.71 ERA across 97 career IP
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 5-3 win vs. Seattle Mariners Friday
Stroman (2-1, 3.41 ERA) is making his 8th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 37 innings.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 5 BB, 3 K in 2-1 win vs. Detroit Tigers Friday
- Career vs. Astros: 3-1, 2.50 ERA (36 IP, 10 ER), 36 H, 9 BB, 38 K in 6 starts
- Has walked 10 batters over his last 9 1/3 IP
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Astros at Yankees odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:54 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Astros +118 (bet $100 to win $118) | Yankees -138 (bet $138 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-176) | Yankees -1.5 (+146)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Astros at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 6, Astros 4
Moneyline
Aside from a three-game stretch April 27-30 that saw the Astros score 30 runs, Houston has scored just 2.91 runs per game since April 21. But Houston has been quite good against ground-ball types, and Stroman has walked 10 batters over his last 9 1/3 innings.
Blanco has an attractive surface ERA of 2.09. But that figure has been buoyed exceedingly fortunate rates around the margins.
Figure the YANKEES (-138) ML action as having just the slightest in lean in this contest.
Run line/Against the spread
Better relative value can be found on the ML: PASS.
Over/Under
There is some fade-Yankees-pitching lean snowballing with a play-the-Astros-offense lean. Add in some fade on the Blanco side of the equation also.
Now add Stroman being a ground-baller, and the Astros being a club that has thus far bashed such types.
The Over has cruised to 2 easy wins so far in this series and is 5-2 over the last 7 series meetings at Yankee Stadium.
TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (-110) in this series finale.
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