The Houston Astros (3-4) and Minnesota Twins (4-2) open a 3-game set Friday at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023. Astros won last season’s series 6-0.
The Astros won as -244 home favorites 8-2 vs. the Detroit Tigers Wednesday. OF Chas McCormick, OF Kyle Tucker and SS Jeremy Peña all homered as Houston avoided being swept in the 3-game series.
The Twins lost as -116 favorites 5-2 at the Miami Marlins Wednesday. OF Trevor Larnach made it 1-1 in the 7th inning with an RBI single, but Miami would eventually go on to score 4 runs in the 8th and win the series 2-1.
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Astros at Twins projected starters
RHP José Urquidy vs. RHP Sonny Gray
Urquidy (0-0, 6.75 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 3 ER on 7 H and 1 BB with 5 K in 4 IP in his debut vs. the Chicago White Sox Saturday.
- Went 13-8 with a 3.94 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 164 1/3 IP in 2022.
- Career vs. Minnesota: 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA (10 IP, 4 ER) in 2 starts.
Gray (1-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He tossed 5 scoreless IP in his debut with 3 H, 4 BB and 1 K at the Kansas City Royals Saturday.
- Posted an 8-5 record with a 3.08 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 119 2/3 IP in 2022.
- Career vs. Houston: 4-4 with a 3.08 ERA (64 1/3 IP, 22 ER) in 10 starts.
Astros at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:24 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Twins -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-190) | Twins -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Astros at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 3, Astros 2
Moneyline
BET TWINS (-130).
Minnesota should bounce back after losing 2 straight games at Miami and be able to take advantage of this Astros team that has been underperforming on the season.
The Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 games after an off day and 5-1 in their last 6 vs. right-handed starters. Houston swept the Twins last season but will struggle to beat them for a 7th straight time.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Houston +1.5 (-190) should hit, but there is no need to pay the higher price on the run line when the Minnesota moneyline is the better play. Bet Minnesota moneyline and/or the total instead.
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Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (-110).
The Under is 4-0 in Houston’s last 4 road games vs. right-handed starters and 7-1 in its last 8 after an off day.
The Under has hit in 5 of Minnesota’s last 6 home games vs. right-handed pitching and should cash again Friday with Urquidy and Gray on the mound.
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