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The Houston Astros (75-64) and Cincinnati Reds (67-73) meet for the finale of a 3-game series Thursday. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is set for 1:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cincinnati leads 2-0
After a 5-3 win in the Tuesday opener, Cincinnati routed Houston 12-5 Wednesday while covering as a +125 home underdog. The Reds erupted for 9 runs in the 1st inning in winning its 3rd straight. RHP Nick Martinez picked up the win (5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 7 K).
Rookie RHP Spencer Arrighetti took the loss as he allowed an astounding 9 ER in 2/3 IP (6 H, 3 BB, 0 K). It was the the shortest outing, and most runs he’s allowed, in his 24-game career.
Astros at Reds projected starters
RHP Hunter Brown vs. RHP Rhett Lowder
Brown (11-7, 3.55 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 147 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 4 K in a 6-3 win vs. Kansas City Royals Thursday
- First time facing Cincinnati
Lowder (0-1, 2.25 ERA) makes his 2nd career start. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 9.0 BB/9 and 13.5 K/9 in 4 IP.
- MLB debut: Loss, 4 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 4 BB, 6 K in a 14-0 loss vs. Milwaukee Brewers Friday
- Has 6-4 record with 3.64 ERA in 22 minor league games
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Astros at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:41 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Reds +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+105) | Reds +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Astros at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 3, Astros 1
Moneyline
LEAN REDS (+125).
Cincinnati has won 3 straight home games while Houston is 1-4 in its last 5 on the road.
The Reds have also been dominant in their recent matchups vs. Houston, going 8-2 in the last 10. They have won the last 4 meetings in Cincinnati.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Cincinnati is slightly better ATS (78-62) than Houston (71-68), but that advantage is not big enough to make me advise taking this bet over the moneyline. You can divvy up units between this bet and the moneyline, but I like the moneyline more than this play.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 9 (-105).
The Under is 3-1-1 in Houston’s last 5 road games and is 2-1 in Cincinnati’s last 3 games. The Under has also hit in 4 of the last 5 Astros-Reds meetings in Cincinnati and 6-4 in the last 10 matchups overall.
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