The Houston Astros (23-13) meet the Boston Red Sox (14-21) in the second game of their 3-game series at Fenway Park with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Boston won the series opener 6-3 Monday thanks to a 3-run bottom of the 8th-inning rally punctuated by SS Xander Bogaerts‘ 2-run home run.
Houston is 8-2 overall in its last 10 games but has lost 2 of its last 3 outings and Boston is just 4-6 in the last 10 but all 4 of those wins have come in the past 6 games.
Astros at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Jose Urquidy vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi
Urquidy is 2-1 with a 4.40 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 across 28 2/3 IP over 6 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Houston’s 11-3 road win over the Minnesota Twins Wednesday with 3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 3 K.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 1.23 FIP with a .177/.222/.265 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA), slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 32.3 K% and 88.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 31 plate appearances (PA).
Eovaldi is 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 40 IP over 7 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Boston’s 5-3 loss at the Atlanta Braves Wednesday with 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 6 K.
- vs. Astros on the current roster: 5.10 FIP with a .285/.360/.502 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 14.7 K% and 90.6 mph EV in 109 PA.
Astros at Red Sox odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:43 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-205) | Red Sox -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Astros at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Red Sox 2
Money line
BET the ASTROS (+100) because the starting pitching matchup with the is a toss-up but Houston has a much more reliable bullpen and a more productive lineup.
Boston’s bullpen ranks in the bottom-10 of xFIP, home runs allowed per 9 innings, hard-hit rate and ERA, according to FanGraphs. While Houston’s bullpen is 3rd in ERA, 8th in home runs allowed per 9 innings and 9th in K/BB rate.
The Red Sox are just 10-17 overall vs. right-handed starters and rank 24th in wRC+ (88), 25th in both wOBA (.289) and WAR (1.8). Whereas the Astros rank 3rd in wRC+ (116), 10th in wOBA (.319) and 1st in WAR (8.3).
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Run line/Against the spread
Slight LEAN to the ASTROS -1.5 (+165) ALTERNATE RL, if at all, because Urquidy’s pitching peripherals against Boston are much stronger than Eovaldi’s against this Houston lineup.
The Red Sox are 2-3 RL as home underdogs and the Astros can put this game out of reach in the late innings against Boston’s weak bullpen.
Over/Under
PASS because more cash in the betting market is on the Under but more bets have been placed on the Over, per Pregame.com. This suggests professional bettors see Astros-Red Sox going Under the total while your average Joe sees all the power in both lineups and thinks to himself “take the Over”.
However, the Over has cashed in 7 of the last 9 Astros-Red Sox meetings, Fenway is a hitter-friendly ballpark and the weather forecast is predicting nearly 15 mph winds blowing out to right-centerfield.
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