The Houston Astros (35-26) go for a three-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox (37-25) Thursday at Fenway Park. First pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET (on MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Astros lead 5-1
Houston took the first two games of this series by scores of 7-1 Tuesday and 8-3 Wednesday.
RHP Zack Greinke is projected to start the finale for the Astros. He is 6-2 with a 3.38 ERA (82 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 over 13 starts this season.
- Last outing: Complete-game win, 9 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K in Houston’s 13-1 victory vs. Toronto Blue Jays in Buffalo, N.Y., Friday
- Career vs. Red Sox: 2-5, 4.60 ERA (43 IP, 22 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 7 starts and 1 relief appearance
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is projected to toe the hill for the Red Sox. He is 5-4 with a 5.59 ERA (58 IP, 36 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 across 11 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K at New York Yankees Saturday – Red Sox won 7-3
- Career vs. Astros (regular season): 1-3, 7.84 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.89 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 in 5 starts
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Astros at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Red Sox -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+135) | Red Sox +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Astros 6, Red Sox 2
Money line (ML)
The ASTROS (-115) are the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager – due to a big advantage in the pitching matchup.
Greinke has struggled against the Red Sox in his career, but he is coming off a complete-game victory and is 3-1 with a 2.03 ERA (31 IP, 7 ER) in his last four starts.
Rodriguez is 0-3 with an 8.53 ERA (19 IP, 18 ER) in his last four starts, including a loss at Houston when he yielded 6 earned runs over 4 2/3 innings.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Back the ASTROS -1.5 (+135) with a HALF-UNIT wager. Houston covered the spread in the first two games of this series, and Greinke’s last four wins were each by at least 3 runs.
ATS records: Astros 31-30 | Red Sox 36-26
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 9 (-110) is worth a QUARTER-UNIT bet. The O/U is 1-1 in this series and 2-4 in their six head-to-head meetings in 2021.
AVOID if the line drops below 9.
O/U records: Astros 36-23-2 | Red Sox 28-33-1
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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
| JOHNNY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| 2021 MLB | 61-65-2 | 19-26-1 | -10.835 |
| 2020 MLB | 80-59-1 | 39-21 | +24.79 |
| 2021 (all sports) | 167-152-3 | 70-68-1 | +4.275 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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