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The Houston Astros (65-49) and Baltimore Orioles (70-43) meet Wednesday to continue a 3-game series in Charm City. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Astros lead 1-0
The Astros won Tuesday’s series opener 7-6. Houston is 3-1 over its last 4 games and has scored 7-plus runs in each of the victories.
The Orioles entered this series having won 4 consecutive games and 7 of their last 8. Baltimore led Tuesday’s game 6-2 heading into the 8th inning and 6-3 heading into the 9th.
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Astros at Orioles projected starters
RHP Cristian Javier vs. RHP Jack Flaherty
Javier (7-2, 4.39 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 112 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 4 R, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K in a 4-3 road loss vs. New York Yankees Thursday
- 2023 road stats: 3-1, 5.29 ERA in 64 2/3 IP through 12 starts but an even worse 8.37 ERA across his last 5 road turns
- One career start vs. Baltimore: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 8 K on Sept. 25, 2022
Flaherty (8-6, 4.28 ERA) is making his 22nd start. He’s logged a 1.52 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 115 2/3 IP for the Orioles and St. Louis Cardinals
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 8 K in 6-1 road win vs. Toronto Blue Jays Thursday in Orioles debut
- 2023 home stats: 4-3, 3.51 ERA in 74 1/3 IP across 13 starts
- Lone career start vs. Houston was 2019
- Acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals on Aug. 1
Astros at Orioles odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Orioles -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-190) | Orioles -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Astros at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 6, Astros 5
Moneyline
Both clubs figure as too far over their skis. Not that they are bad or average but that their current records are a bit of an overreach. The ‘Stros and O’s are would-be fades in a lot of potential match-ups. Against each other — with this pitching match-up — a PASS is advisable.
Run line/Against the spread
Baltimore would be a value play at -1.5 (+170). AVOID the play as listed.
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Over/Under
The Under was a value play in the opener and was only lost with the Houston comeback over the 8th and 9th innings.
Wednesday’s pitching match-up has us as bettors being dealt a different hand. We get Javier coming off back-to-back 100-pitch outings and being the overall beneficiary of a .268 batting average on balls in play. Baltimore closer Felix Bautista threw 30 pitches Tuesday and has thrown in 2 of the club’s last 3 games.
On an evening with the forecast calling for an outward breeze (Javier and the Houston bullpen are fly-ball pitchers), an extra double or home run could well end up on the box score. BACK THE OVER 9 (-115).
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