The Houston Astros (64-49) and Baltimore Orioles (70-42) meet Tuesday to open a 3-game series between AL contenders. First pitch at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023; the Orioles won last year’s series 4-3
The Astros’ offense has run hot and cold of late, but the ball club has managed a 12-6 mark since July 19. Houston has logged an .824 OPS at home and a .677 mark on the road over that stretch.
Baltimore has thus far enjoyed its best season since 1979 when the Orioles played .642 baseball en route to a World Series appearance. The O’s enter this series having won 4 consecutive games and 7 of their last 8.
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Astros at Orioles projected starters
LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Valdez (9-7, 3.07 ERA) makes his 22nd start of the year. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 135 IP.
- Last start: Win, 9 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 2-0 home win vs. Cleveland Guardians last Tuesday
- 2023 road stats: 5-2, 4.11 ERA in 50 1/3 IP over 8 starts
- Career vs. Orioles: 0-0, 3.65 ERA in 14 2/3 IP across 2 starts and 1 relief appearance
- Makes his first start since no-hitting Cleveland last Tuesday with just 93 pitches, which was a major reversal of fortune: he had registered a 7.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over his 5 previous starts
Rodriguez (2-3, 6.09 ERA)is tabbed for his 15th start. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 68 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K in a 4-1 road loss vs. Toronto Blue Jays Wednesday
- 2023 home stats: 1-2, 7.36 ERA in 33 IP through 7 starts
- Has never faced Houston as a starter
- Owns a 2.55 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over his last three starts
Astros at Orioles odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:16 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Astros -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Orioles +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+135) | Orioles +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Astros at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Orioles 3
Moneyline
Both clubs figure as would-be fades in a lot of potential series. Against each other, with this pitching match-up, a PASS is advisable.
Run line/Against the spread
Rodriguez is facing a Houston offense that has been below-average against right-handed pitchers (.718 OPS). The host Orioles are a would-be lean with a likable Under play (see below), but the pricing here is not attractive on that Baltimore play.
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Over/Under
The Under has hit in 7 of Houston’s last 10 road games and is 6-2 across the last 8 Houston-Baltimore games.
Rodriguez has been undone by some shaky rates around the margins. Adding in a pair of rested bullpens, the UNDER 8 (+100) has some value.
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