Here’s a take: the 49ers should simply stop using their third-round picks.
With the exception of All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner, San Francisco hasn’t had a ton of success finding good players in the latter half of the Day 2 selections since Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch took over in 2017. It’s still early for the 2022 selections, but the returns through their first eight weeks as pros aren’t great.
Here’s a quick look at the team’s third-round choices since 2017:
2017, CB Ahkello Witherspoon, No. 66
2017, QB CJ Beathard, No. 104
2018, LB Fred Warner, No. 70
2018, DB Tarvarius Moore, No. 95
2019, WR Jalen Hurd, No. 67
2021, RB Trey Sermon, No. 88
2021, CB Ambry Thomas, No. 102
2022, RB Tyrion Davis-Price, No. 93
2022, WR Danny Gray, No. 105
Third-round picks aren’t exactly meant to be home-run selections. Warner is very much an outlier as an All-Pro who signed a massive, top-of-market second contract with San Francisco. However, the 49ers have really struggled to find contributing starters in the third round particularly in the last four drafts.
Injuries forced Hurd to never play a regular-season snap before his release in the middle of the 2021 season. Sermon was released this year after a disappointing rookie campaign where notched 167 yards and a touchdown on 41 carries in nine games. Thomas, Sermon’s 2021 draft mate, had a promising close to his rookie year, but he’s played just 24 defensive snaps in 2022 despite injury problems in the secondary.
Both Davis-Price and Gray have had trouble seeing the field as rookies. The RB dealt with a high ankle sprain and he’s played in only three games. He has 16 carries for 37 yards and didn’t play a snap in the team’s Week 8 win over the Rams. Gray has played in five games, but offensive snaps have been sparse, he’s yet to catch a pass on six targets, and he was out-snapped 21 to 5 by veteran Willie Snead IV in Week 8. Snead was released a couple days later and re-signed to the practice squad.
The reason this all matters is because the 49ers will go into next year’s draft with at least two late third-round picks. Those selections will be their first in the 2023 draft and it stands to reason they’ll need to find some high-quality starters on the cheap with some of the cap issues they’re facing. That means hitting on some of these third-round choices, or at least not whiffing entirely.
Obviously they’re not going to just not pick in the third-round, but the fact is they need to be better than they’ve been during the Shanahan-Lynch regime. They can’t get away with selecting players who are gone before their rookie contracts are up. Career backups also won’t be a ton of help as they search for starting-caliber talent.
The other possible solution is Davis-Price, Gray or Thomas turn a corner. There’s still very much a window of opportunity for that to happen as they continue their development at the NFL level.
While the third-round hasn’t been good to the 49ers, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re doomed no matter what. It’s clear though they have to be better in that round when they wind up picking there, and even finding one quality starter there in next year’s draft would be a pretty substantial help as they build around a slew of high-priced talent.
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