The PGA Tour begins its four-event Florida swing with this week’s Honda Classic. Just three of the top 10 players in the world, according to the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings are in the field this week. Many of the world’s top golfers are taking the week off ahead of next week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship the following week.
The key stats for the 7,125-yard, par-70 PGA National are:
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
- SG: Approach
- Birdies or Better Gained
- Sand Saves Gained
- Par 4 Efficiency: 400-450 Yards
- Strokes Gained: Scrambling
My model at Fantasy National looks at the most recent 36 rounds for each golfer in the field on courses shorter than 7,200 yards.
Honda Classic – Tier 1
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 12:30 a.m. ET.
Tommy Fleetwood (+1000)
At No. 5 in the Golfweek rankings, Fleetwood is the top golfer in attendance. He also leads my stat model for the week on his strengths in SG: Ball Striking and Par 4 Efficiency. He finished fourth here in 2018 before skipping last year’s event.
Fleetwood is one of the more precise and accurate golfers in the world, and the forced layups off the tees at PGA National will play to his advantage as golfers need to navigate their way around the course. He’s a chalky play as the tournament favorite, but it worked for us last week with Viktor Hovland at the Puerto Rico Open.
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Billy Horschel (+2800)
Horschel has finished T-9 at each of his last two events – last week’s WGC-Mexico Championship and the Waste Management Phoenix Open. He tied for 16th at last year’s tournament following a missed cut in 2018. He finished T-4 and T-8 in 2017 and 2016, respectively. Like Fleetwood, he’s a great irons player.
Honda Classic – Tier 2
Matthew Wolff (+8000)
Wolff took last week off following a missed cut at the Genesis Invitational. He had previously missed the cut at the WMPO. While he ranks just 72nd overall by the stat model, he’s 18th in Birdies or Better Gained on shorter courses.
Luke List (+9000)
List’s advantage in length is largely negated at PGA National due to the forced layups off the tee. He was the runner-up to Rickie Fowler in 2018 and he tied for 10th in 2016. He’s on a streak of three straight made cuts.
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Honda Classic – Longshots
Sam Burns (+10000)
Burns’ odds are attractive following a T-8 finish in 2018. He followed it up with a T-73 last year, but he’s coming off a T-23 result in a much stronger field at the Genesis Invitational. He can score low on shorter courses.
Dylan Frittelli (+15000)
Frittelli excels on par 4’s ranging from 400-450 yards. He missed the cut last year on the heels of an 11th-place finish in 2018. He hasn’t found top form since his breakthrough win at last year’s John Deere Classic, but he picked up top-10 finishes at the Sanderson Farms Championship and Safeway Open earlier in the 2019-20 season. These odds are far too high for someone with a Masters invite already secured.
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