Here’s why the Cowboys are underdogs for the 1st time in 2023

A deep dive into the stats notebook explains how to really look at DAL-SF, including DVOA, EPA, Toxic Plays, 3rd down over expectation and more. Dallas needs to punch up. | From @KDDrummondNFL

The Dallas Cowboys aren’t used to being in this position in 2023. Through four games, the team has been a decided favorite in each of them. Despite stumbling against Arizona, the Cowboys have lived up to their billing for the most part, dominating three lesser opponents like great teams are supposed to.

The problem in Week 5 is that the San Francisco 49ers are certainly not lesser. In fact, the notebook shows the myriad of ways the 49ers have used to achieve their undefeated 4-0 record, and separated themselves from other clubs, even Dallas. Here’s a look at the ledger in terms of DVOA, EPA, QB metrics and of course the big-play metric of toxicity. How much of an advantage does San Francisco have?