Every draft analyst and member of the media has their own unique method when it comes to constructing a mock draft. Some writers use their personal rankings and project what they think should happen in Round 1, while others predict what will happen based on prevailing draft narratives regardless of their player evaluations.
Then there are mock drafts like Cynthia Frelund’s on NFL.com, which used the following guiding principles:
My analytics-based mock is based solely on a contextual, data-driven model that aims to do one thing: maximize each team’s potential to win as many games as possible in 2021.
I use my draft prospect model, explained at the top of this article, to create a numerical value for each player. These ratings can be compared across years. Then I use my NFL model, which considers the market of potential free agents at each position, to create projected win-contribution metrics by player, position group and side of the ball. These get added up to predict win totals for the season. (Here’s an example of these metrics for WRs.) The results quantify strengths and weaknesses of current NFL rosters. My model also factors in as many known elements of coaching philosophies (of the current staffs) as possible, and each team’s 2021 opponents. Then, my model “selects” the draft prospect that would yield the highest win total for each team in the coming season.
That’s a lot of variables for a mock draft. And there are even more conditions Frelund applies to every pick (the breakdown was too much to add to this post. Click here to read it all.) It’s kind of overkill if you ask me, but that’s the deal when you’re working with analytics, right?
As for the pick that Frelund’s computer made for the Bears? At No. 20 overall, Chicago grabs Purdue wide receiver, Rondale Moore.
All that for Moore? Sure, he’s a legitimate offensive weapon who will bring explosive plays as a receiver, an option out of the backfield, and can be a dangerous player in the return game, but his injury history (has appeared in just seven total games over the last two seasons) makes it unlikely he’ll be a first-round pick regardless of his field-flipping ability.
Maybe the Bears will reach on a wide receiver in Round 1 if they lose Robinson in free agency and decide to part ways with Anthony Miller. Drafting Moore at No. would qualify as that kind of reach.
I have a solid second-round grade on Moore and there’s a better chance Chicago would draft him at No. 53 than at No. 20.