Bill Connelly, ESPN’s college football analytics guru, recently released what his SP+ prediction for every team’s win totals. His model gives the Florida Gators an 86% chance to win at least six games.
For those of you who enjoy gambling on college football, and more on that coming soon here at Gators Wire, the SP+ model gives you an analytical approach toward your bet slip.
The latest SP+ win projections — which averages wins (conference and overall), odds of bowl eligibility and odds of winning at least 11 games — show the Gators to be a middle-of-the-pack team, predicting an average of 7.1 wins and 4.2 SEC wins this season. Seven of their games are expected to cover the spread, with 40% of their games hitting the over, and 26% of their games pushing.
The biggest thing that stands out to me is the Orange and Blue’s 7.1 wins. Tipico Sportsbook currently lists the over/under win total for the Gators at 6.5. The over is priced at +130 while the Under is priced at -160.
Let’s take a look at the Gators’ schedule this season. H = Home. A = Away.
Presumed Wins: USF (H), Eastern Washington (H), Vanderbilt (A), FSU (A).
50/50: Kentucky (H), Tennessee (A), Missouri (H), LSU (H), South Carolina (H),
Presumed Losses: Utah (H), Georgia (Jax), Texas A&M (A)
Per my predictions, the Gators have four wins, three losses, and five 50/50 games. I personally think the over is the right bet here. Tipico is giving us plus odds, and if my predictions are accurate, then we are looking at three wins from the 50/50 sections.
A hard-fought opening-day loss to Utah could give the Gators momentum to catch a good Kentucky team at home early on. Missouri to me is almost a lock (but you never know with a Year 1 coach) and then you only need one more. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Gators can win at least one of Tennessee, LSU or South Carolina.
I’m a big fan of aligning with Connelly’s SP+ model and saying at least seven wins is realistic. Pair that up with plus odds? Thanks for the money, Tipico!
The Florida Gators open their season at home against the No. 8 Utah Utes on September 3 at 7 p.m. EDT on ESPN.
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