(In this series, Touchdown Wire’s Mark Schofield takes a look at one important metric per NFL team to uncover a crucial problem to solve for the 2020 season. In this installment, it’s time to look at Kyler Murray’s sack numbers from 2019, and how he and the Arizona Cardinals might address that issue in 2020).
I still remember the murmurs as they worked their way through the stands at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama.
I was down along the Gulf Coast for my annual trip to the Senior Bowl, and was taking in another practice. The focus was supposed to be on the players on the field in front of us, from Daniel Jones to Drew Lock and Dalton Risner. Some players that were on the field at that time would go on to have impact seasons as rookies, including Jones and Risner and Terry McLarin. But the name on the lips of every media member in the stands was a the name of a player who was not in attendance, and who a mere weeks earlier was headed to Major League Baseball:
Kyler Murray.
In the weeks leading up to the 2019 Senior Bowl the Oklahoma quarterback, fresh off winning the Heisman Trophy and guiding the Sooners to an appearance in the College Football Playoff declared his intentions to enter the NFL draft, despite having signed a contract to play baseball for the Oakland A’s. That decision, coupled by the hiring of Kliff Kingsbury as the new coach of the Arizona Cardinals, fueled speculation in the stands that the Cardinals and their new head coach – who recruited Murray while the coach of Texas Tech – would look to draft the Sooner.
But what would Murray need to do to demonstrate he was worthy of the first-overall selection? Just how important would his height and weight be for him when he measured in at Indianapolis? Could he handle life as an NFL quarterback?
Quickly enough, those first two questions were answered. Murray by many accounts “won” the Combine last year, and did enough both on film and during the draft process to come off the board first overall. But the third question still needed to be answered.
Over the course of a 16-game slate last season, Murray answered that question as well.
It was not a perfect rookie season, as the Cardinals finished with a 5-10-1 record, but Murray showed that he belonged in the league, completing 64.4% of his passes for 3,722 yards and 20 touchdowns. He also added 544 yards rushing on 93 attempts, contributing four touchdown runs as well.
But if the Cardinals — and Murray — are going to take the leap forward many expect in the 2020 season, there is another number that needs to be addressed: 48. That is how many sacks Murray took last season, and those 48 sacks tied him with Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan for the most in the league.
There is more to the sack numbers than just the hits that Murray took over the course of the season. Ryan and Wilson are veteran passers who can handle pressure effectively. For example Wilson had an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 66.7% last year when under pressure, which was seventh-best in the league, while Ryan was right behind him at eighth with an ACP of 66.5%. Murray? His Adjusted Completion Percentage when pressured came in at 56.7%, ranking him 25th among qualified passers. Putting the Cardinals’ rookie quarterback ahead of players like Josh Allen and Mitchell Trubisky, but behind Sam Darnold, Kyle Allen and fellow rookie Daniel Jones.
As we discussed with Jones in this series, not all quarterback pressures/sacks can be laid at the feet of the guys up front. According to ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate, the Cardinals’ offensive line won – defined as holding their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer – on 62% of their passing plays last year. That placed the Cardinals tenth in the league.
Take some examples. On this first play, from Arizona’s Week 3 game loss to the Carolina Panthers. The Cardinals face a 2nd and 12 in the red zone before halftime, and have all three time outs. They run a Smash concept to the right side while the Panthers drop into a Cover 4 look. Murray has the simple hitch underneath, but he waits too long to decide, and takes a sack:
The quarterback has time to work through multiple reads, but cannot pull the trigger and takes a sack.
Now here is an example from Arizona’s Week 14 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Again, Murray has options to throw quickly underneath, but he takes too much time in the pocket, and ends up taking another sack:
Looking ahead to 2020, the Cardinals and their quarterback can try and cut down on the sacks in a few different ways. Arizona did look to address the offensive line – even though statistics show that the group up front was solid in 2019 – by drafting Josh Jones in the third round. The Houston tackle, who many considered a potential first-round selection, has experience and showed at the Senior Bowl that he can handle talented pass rushers off the edge, but might be a bit raw.
But the two biggest reasons these numbers might cut down come from an addition on the outside, and from the quarterback himself. As every football fan likely knows, the Cardinals traded for DeAndre Hopkins this offseason, giving Kingsbury and his quarterback one of the game’s elite talents at the wide receiver position.
How can Hopkins fit into this offense? Last year the Cardinals led the league in using 10 offensive personnel. Arizona used that grouping on 31% of their plays, or 310 snaps. For comparison’s sake the next closest team, the Cleveland Browns, used 10 personnel on seven percent of their plays, or 72 snaps.
So Hopkins joins a potential 10 personnel package of Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella/Hakeem Butler/KeeSean Johnson. With Kenyan Drake in the backfield. That unit has the potential to stress defenses from sideline-to-sideline and deep down the field. With open options, Murray should be able to make quick reads and decisions.
But whether he does is up to him. We have seen quarterbacks take a big leap forward in their second seasons, such as Jared Goff and Mitchell Trubisky (although perhaps in the case of Trubisky it was more of a mirage) and Murray is certainly a contender to have a similar sophomore jump. He will need to be faster with his reads and decisions to avoid these kind of sack numbers. In addition, there are occasions where his athleticism leads him to sacks, as he will try and create outside of the pocket and end up running into a sack as a result. Having the addition of Hopkins, having a rookie season under his belt and improvement with his reads and decisions, however, should work to cut that sack total down in 2020.