If you’re Lewis Hamilton, it must be tough to know just how to feel about your current professional situation right now.
The seven-time world champion surprised the sporting world with his decision to leave Mercedes for Ferrari in 2025, particularly with the timing of the announcement that confirmed the move prior to this current season.
And while Hamilton has generally not dodged questions about that future move so far this year, he’s always brought the topic back to Mercedes and his desire to end his hugely successful time there on a high. But at this moment, that’s looking particularly challenging.
Hamilton went through a rollercoaster of emotions during the race weekend in Suzuka. It was so refreshing to see how positive he was heading into the race – joking and laughing in his Thursday media session – and that mood continuing into qualifying, where he was remarkably upbeat about seventh place on the grid.
OK, maybe that’s overstating it a little. The grid position itself didn’t excite Hamilton, but he was boosted by how the car felt, and how he was able to really push it in that incredible opening sector that all drivers seem to absolutely love attacking in Formula 1 machinery.
Plus, the gap to Red Bull in qualifying was smaller than it had been at the same venue just six months earlier. But the same was true for Ferrari, and Aston Martin, and McLaren. And come race day, Mercedes was slipping to the back of that pack – partly through strategic choice, it must be said – while Ferrari was rising to the front of it.
The direction at Ferrari appears very clear right now. Fred Vasseur has got the team working harmoniously, with an understanding of what is required to improve itself in all areas. Carlos Sainz points out that a better car is central to so much of the impression of progress in other departments too, but then it’s obvious Ferrari is improving its car.
The catalyst for that was identified as the Dutch Grand Prix last year, where Ferrari really gained an understanding of how to make a car work effectively under the current regulations. Since then, every update and development appears to have been in the right direction. As Sainz himself acknowledges, having a more competitive and compliant car opens up more strategic options, and there are positive knock-on impacts that translate into better race results.
That’s a great sign for Hamilton’s future, but the same really can’t be said for the team he still has to complete another 20 races with.
By the end of Sunday’s race, Hamilton’s mood had, understandably, deteriorated markedly. Seventh on the grid became ninth in at the checkered flag, and Mercedes had definitely not maximized its strategy; an area where Ferrari used to face regular criticism.
A Dutch journalist trying to follow-up to Hamilton’s race summary of “It was OK” was perhaps too hasty in attempting to fill the silence – understandable, in his second language – and asked if he was jealous of the Ferraris being ahead, or looking forward to joining them instead.
“Do you have any better questions?” and a rapid exit after 26 seconds was the polar opposite to where Hamilton’s demeanor had been just 24 hours earlier.
And you can’t blame him, because for every hint at progress at Mercedes since the start of 2022, it increasingly appears that the team still does not understand its car well enough to cement those gains.
Toto Wolff changed his plans ahead of Suzuka after having originally intended to remain in Europe for the race weekend. His attendance was explained as being due to him wanting to get a boost from being around the race team and helping with its direction at a time when it is trying new things.
But after a humbling result that leaves Mercedes with just 34 points from the opening four rounds – its second-worst return in its F1 history – Wolff was candid in his admission that Mercedes is still lost when it comes to getting a car to perform under these rules.
Revealing that tests in Melbourne had proven to the team that its car had huge amounts more downforce compared to 2023, but it wasn’t translating into performance, Wolff insisted that Mercedes is closer to answers as a result. But it still doesn’t have them.
“Everything over these two years that we’ve seen points to there should be more downforce than we believe it is,” Wolff said. “And now we’ve measured the downforce and it’s there, we’re just not able to extract the lap time out of it that we should and that simulations show us. And it’s not trivial. I see you looking at me like ‘What the hell?!’ Now imagine what we think!”
The mixed messages between lessons being learned but understanding being missing are tough to read. And over the last two-and-a-bit seasons, the feeling may well have grown within Hamilton that those answers are not going to be forthcoming soon enough.
Whether he strongly believed the difference between Ferrari’s upward momentum and Mercedes’ decline would be so stark four races into the season is something only Hamilton will know, but as his replacement is sought, Wolff appears to concede there will be no quick fix.
“I think you can look at it from various perspectives. I believe that we are in a rebuild phase, we need to acknowledge that now three years into these regulations,” he said. “We’ve got to do things differently to what we’ve done in the past without throwing overboard what we believe is goodness in the way we operate.
“And ‘rebuild’ could mean putting a young driver in there and giving him an opportunity with less pressure, or putting a more experienced driver in the car that can help us dig ourselves out of the current performance picture.”
Mercedes’ succession planning was always one of its great strengths during its dominant spell, and it’s a team full of immensely talented people and impressive facilities that have worked out the best way to win under previous regulations before.
To write it off completely would be dangerous, but with the likes of Ferrari and even McLaren continuing to speak confidently about the directions they’re heading in – and backing it up with improvements on-track – the Mercedes situation looks ever more concerning.
With the 2026 rules reset looming, unless there’s a lightbulb moment within Mercedes’ engineering team very soon, Hamilton could find himself denied the positive finish to that partnership he so craves, but even more justified in his decision to seek a new challenge.