The former Alabama player turned ESPN analyst has been high on Michigan football, making it No. 1 in his power rankings in midseason. However, Greg McElroy just went the extra step when it came to his keys and prediction for the Wolverines vs. Ohio State on Saturday.
Appearing on his podcast, McElroy broke down what he’s seen from the Buckeyes, having just called their most recent game, and how they match up against Michigan. Though there are questions about Blake Corum’s availability on Saturday, McElroy thinks the maize and blue still have the pieces to be able to pull off the upset.
Here are his comments:
“So, I called the game involving Ohio State just last week. So I’ve seen them up close and personal and spent time with their coaches over the last few weeks in an effort to try to prepare myself for the Maryland game,” McElroy said. “I feel like I’m really in a good spot to be able to preview and break this thing down. I know the Buckeyes roster like the back of my hand, it’s fresh in my mind, so let’s give it our best shot.
“OK, this is obviously a massive game. It’s the first time since 2006 that both Ohio State and Michigan square off as undefeated teams. Remember that ‘06 game was the first of the many games of the century, right? This is not new — game of the century, though. That was the first. It feels like at least this century, or at least maybe that year is the first game of the century. Remember, Ohio State won that game, 42-39, Ohio State went on to play Florida (in the) national championship (in) that year, but ultimately that win propelled them into that spot — Michigan dropped to No. 3.
“This is going to be an opportunity for Michigan to win against the Buckeyes in consecutive years for the first time since 1999 and 2000. Of course, the starting quarterbacks in those two games, respectively, Tom Brady and Drew Henson. So it’s been a minute since they’ve won back to back games against the Buckeyes, and it’s really been a minute since they’ve won a game in The Shoe. That was back in 2000. So last time they won a game in The Shoe since then Ohio State’s won nine straight there in the friendly confines of Columbus, Ohio.
“So this is a great matchup for so many different reasons. You have the nation’s second-best offense in regards to points per game against the nation’s second-best defense in regards to points per game. Let’s start with that, because that’s where most of the conversation is going to center around — Ohio State’s offense against Michigan’s defense, I think of course, is probably going to be this sexy approach, if you will, when it comes to this game.
“Let’s start with CJ Stroud. What is he? Do I really need to spend a lot of time on CJ Stroud? You know he’s super accurate. You know he’s super gifted, you know that he’s going to play a very long time in the NFL. More than likely all these things are true. But I can tell you all that stuff. What I can also tell you is that the one flaw in his game is he’s not elite in the pocket. He’s fine. He’s solid, but when he moves in the pocket, he’s a little statuesque, and to be honest with you, his moves are a little bit problematic. They (the defensive line) are trying to (move the QB out of the pocket) when you’re rushing the passer. You want to force the passer to retreat. That’s the goal. If you compress the pocket, you force the passer to retreat. Well, that’s exactly what CJ Stroud does. There have been a lot of clean pockets that he’s thrown from this year, and the offensive line does a pretty good job of protection, but he does not step up in the pocket. And when you’re constantly retreating against a quality pass rush, you’re having to throw off your back foot and that can lead to you being just a little bit inaccurate. That’s the key for Michigan — force Ohio State’s offensive line back into the lap of CJ Stroud, force him to retreat in the pocket as opposed to step up in the pocket. And if you do, he’ll become less accurate as the game goes along. He’s a great player though, and if he gets hot, it can be very, very difficult to contain this offense.
“The wide receiver position. We all know about what Marvin Harrison is, he’s tremendous. He’s a big-body wide receiver with small-receiver nuance. The guy can run great routes, he runs routes. Like he’s 5-foot-10, but he’s 6-foot-3. That tells you all you need to know. So, he can also win the contested catches and he seems to even though I don’t think he’s a crazy burner, he always seems to get behind the defense, probably because he has great hands. And on the second level, he can definitely make guys swat so if you’re gonna play him, you better double him up, or else you gotta have some issues in the slot. Emeka Egbuka — very, very solid. We know exactly who he is, as well. He’ll do some different things. They’ll try to involve him, but he’s an excellent slot receiver that does an awful lot for the Buckeyes. Of course if Jaxon Smith-Njigba is back, he’ll occupy that slot spot and Egbuka will likely slide out. But either way, whether it’s Fleming, whether it’s Egbuka, whether it’s Xavier Johnson, it’s a very deep and talented wide receiver corps that will be very difficult for Michigan to contain.
“As far as the run game is concerned, last week when the passing game wasn’t really ripping, they said forget about it. We’re going to hand it off-tackle. Well, if Miyan Williams is for whatever reason that less than 100% and TreVeyon Henderson is at less than 100%, Dallan Hayden proves to be a capable enough piece to be able to hand it to him 20 times in the game if you need to. However, if the offense isn’t operating at its fullest potential — it’s not going to be like Maryland, where we can just hand stretch zone and boom, Dallan Hayden is going to go untouched to the second level. Michigan does a great job of holding the point of attack. So your tackles are gonna have to play better than they have pretty much at any point in the season. This offensive line’s has been solid at times in the run game, but I expect their best performance to be this week. You see it kind of stop and start with them. They’re not crazy physical and they struggle in short yardage. That could be a very, very important part of this plan.
“Moving over to Michigan when Ohio State has the football, we all know exactly what this defense is all about. They do a great job of affecting the opposing quarterback, they do a great job of mixing their looks and they’re very, very good on the perimeter. I think. I think the biggest part of this game for Michigan is going to be the play of their corners. If you can get physical with the wide receivers like Maryland did and like teams have at times this year, I think you can get disrupt the rhythm enough to be able to make life difficult for the passing attack. If I were them, I would get as physical as humanly possible. And if I get flagged a couple of times as a result, so be it, I’llll live with those 15-yard pass interference penalties, more so than I’ll live with giving up 15-yard completions. Why? Because a pass interference penalty doesn’t build confidence in the offense. I’d hit these receivers as best I could. If I were Michigan, that I think is the key.
“So we’ve kind of summed up that side of the ball. If you look at Michigan offensively, we know so much of it. It’s going to center around whether or not Blake Corum is healthy. I don’t know for sure. I think he’ll be fine. But will he be close to 100%? That is an all-points bulletin that you must find out if you’re Jim Harbaugh and this offensive attack. Donovan Edwards as well. Very important piece of the run game. This offensive line, I think you can make a strong argument it’s the best offensive line in football. I think they are the best group I’ve seen this year. And I think Ohio State up front defensively is pretty dang good. I think they’re very good on the edges — Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau — those two guys do an excellent job. You got Harrison on the other side on the edges. Ohio State’s really good but I do think up the middle of the defense, they are somewhat human. If I’m Michigan, I’m trying to establish a vertical run game as best I can. And if you want to peek at a tape, just go take a look at the Penn State tape. Those linebackers for Penn State were way out of position most of the game. That won’t be the case this week. You’re gonna have to earn your yards against Ohio State because Steele Chambers and Tommy Eichenberg do an amazing, amazing job at being able to sniff things out. And then, if you choose to play laterally, they’re athletic enough to be able to move sideline to sideline as well. I think this is an excellent linebacker corps for Ohio State and I think those are the two most important players on the defensive side of the football.
“For the Buckeyes on the perimeter, you’ve got to think Michigan is going to challenge these corners. This has been a corner group for Ohio State that has some guys that have been in and out of the lineup. I kind of like the wide receivers for Michigan. I think that they’re very underappreciated. Like, they’re very underrated. Ronnie Bell I think has a chance to become a game changer. Roman Wilson, I think, is a really good piece. Cornelius Johnson — you got some really good pieces on the perimeter for Michigan when working against Ohio State, but I also think you cannot overlook the involvement on the shallow cross routes on the mesh routes involving the tight ends. We’ve seen Michigan run those hundreds of times this season. Few times they’ve been covered very well. And it gets guys running across the formation. J.J. McCarthy on underneath throws has been pretty dang good — it’s the downfield throws that he hasn’t been quite as consistent with. He needs to play his best game in a Wolverines uniform.
“If they’re going to pull off the upset, I think it’s gonna be a phenomenal game on both sides. I think both defenses are extremely underrated. I think both offensively are appropriately rated. Michigan, for all the reasons that they excel along the line of scrimmage and with the vertical rushing attack. Ohio State, with their big play potential and their prowess at both wide receiver and a quarterback. It’s a dynamic back and forth.
“I’m going Michigan. I know it’s at Ohio State. I know I’m definitely taking the underdog. I know it’s definitely going to be an uphill climb for the Michigan Wolverines to pull off what would be one of the biggest upsets of the college football season. But I still have not been convinced at this point that Ohio State has eradicated some of the issues that plagued them against the Wolverines last year. Michigan can control the line of scrimmage especially up the middle, and I think J.J. McCarthy’s legs can make it just difficult enough for Tommy Eichenberg and Steele Chambers at the second level to stay at home and or get beat to the perimeter. I think it’s gonna be a phenomenal game of back and forth but I expect Michigan to have the better plan and I think Michigan’s gonna hold up in the run game against Ohio State’s offensive line, as well in the physicality — especially if the refs let them play. I think the physical presence that this game is likely going to require is going to be advantage Michigan. I think Michigan wins it in a photo finish. And I think if anything we’re going to come away from this game saying both Ohio State and Michigan (that) they’re likely in the top four teams in college football.”
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