The Golden State Warriors (33-32) meet the New Orleans Pelicans (29-36) Tuesday for their second game in consecutive days at Smoothie King Center. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Warriors-Pelicans odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Golden State beat the brakes off of New Orleans 123-108 Monday thanks to a sensational performance by PG Stephen Curry, who dropped 41 points on 14-of-26 shooting with 4 rebounds and 8 assists.
The eighth-place Warriors are firmly in the postseason play-in territory. They are 3.5 games back of the sixth-place Dallas Mavericks and 4 games in front of the Pelicans, who are in 11th place.
The Pelicans are 4-3 overall and 5-2 ATS over the past two weeks but unfortunately, their playoff hopes are fleeting. They sit 2.5 games behind the San Antonio Spurs for the final spot in the postseason play-in tournament.
Warriors at Pelicans: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Warriors +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Pelicans -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Warriors +2.5 (-115) | Pelicans -2.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 234.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Warriors at Pelicans: Key injuries
Warriors
- SG Damion Lee (health and safety protocols) questionable
- PF Eric Paschall (hip) questionable
- SF Kelly Oubre Jr. (wrist) out
Pelicans
- C Steven Adams (toe) questionable
- SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker (ankle) out
- SG Josh Hart (thumb) out
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Warriors at Pelicans: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Warriors 117, Pelicans 112
Money line (ML)
PASS. Even though I “lean” to Golden State covering the spread, there’s just not enough value in Warriors (+110).
It’s tough to beat the same team in consecutive days. This is pretty much a playoff game for the Pelicans, however, they’re just 8-13 as home favorites this season.
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Against the spread (ATS)
BET the WARRIORS +2.5 (-115) for 1 unit, but wait until as close to tip-off as possible before wagering on this game because Adams’ game status is the biggest factor for this handicap.
The Pelicans have the highest rebounding rate in the league, and that’s due in large part to Adams dominating the paint.
The Warriors have the third-worst rebounding percentage in the league so Adams’ absence will lessen that disadvantage.
Also, the Pelicans are 4-8 ATS when laying between 1-2.5 points and 6-15 ATS as home favorites whereas the Warriors are 6-5 ATS when being spotted 1-2.5 points.
Lastly, the Pelicans are ranked 27th in defensive rating and the Warriors have lit up bad defenses this season.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Warriors are 14-9 overall vs. teams in the bottom 10 of defensive efficiency with a plus-3.2-point ATS margin.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS on the total because Curry has been dominant since the start of April, the Pelicans have the fourth-highest FTA/FG rate while the Warriors have the second-worst defensive FTA/FG rate.
However, Golden State is ranked sixth in defensive rating, the Under has cashed in nine of Golden State’s last 11 games played on zero rest and New Orleans has played to the Under in five of its past six games.
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