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The Golden State Warriors (12-7) square off against the Denver Nuggets (10-8) in the Emirates NBA Cup Tuesday evening. Tip-off from Ball Arena is set for 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Warriors vs. Nuggets odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Nuggets won 4-0 last year
The Dubs have dropped 4 straight and are really struggling to find consistency. They’ve posted 105, 101, 120 and 94 points in that stretch. The latest was a 113-105 loss at Phoenix Saturday. G Stephen Curry returned from a 2-game absence with a knee issue and posted 23 points, 7 boards and 4 assists. Curry is playing his fewest minutes since the 2019-20 season when he only played 5 games. He’s shooting the best from long range (43.4%) than he has since the 2018-19 season. However, he is averaging nearly 4 points fewer than he did last season.
The Nuggets have traded wins and losses over the last 7 games with the latest being a 126-122 loss to the LA Clippers Sunday. They were 3-point favorites in the road setback. C Nikola Jokic picked up his eighth triple-double of the season with 28 points, 14 boards and 11 assists. Jokic had a stretch of 5 straight triple-doubles in early November. Is he starting another?
Warriors at Nuggets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NBA odds. Lines last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Warriors +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Nuggets -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Warriors +4.5 (-105) | Nuggets -4.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 237.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Warriors at Nuggets key injuries
Warriors
- G Stephen Curry (knee) probable
- F Draymond Green (calf) out
- G De’Anthony Melton (knee) out
Nuggets
- F Aaron Gordon (calf) probable
- F Peyton Watson (adductor) probable
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Warriors at Nuggets picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 118, Warriors 115
Moneyline
The Nuggets have won 7 straight matchups against the Warriors. There’s no reason they shouldn’t make it 8, as they’re at full strength. It is a little worrisome that they’re just 5-5 in their last 10 and just 5-4 at home this year, though. So, no thanks to the -190 ML.
Instead, I’d rather take a chance that Jokic is in fact stringing together a bunch of trip-dubs. NIKOLA JOKIC TRIPLE-DOUBLE (+110) is where I’m going. BetMGM has awarded most accounts with a 20% odds boost for NBA Cup action, which makes this +132.
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Against the spread
I’m going to take the ALTERNATE SPREAD WARRIORS +5.5 (-120) here. You could use the aforementioned boost to make that an even +100. I’m willing to pay for the extra point with that in mind and because the Warriors are 3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings despite losing all of them. Denver hasn’t hit its stride yet, and this could be the time to catch it.
Over/Under
The Warriors have hit the Under in 6 of 7. The Nuggets are 4-4 O/U in their last 8. The Under has cashed in 4 of 5 meetings.
The way these teams are hit-or-miss, that’s all I need to take the UNDER 237.5 (-110).
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