The No. 6 seed Denver Nuggets (0-3) try to keep their season alive when they host the No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors (3-0) Sunday. Tip-off at Ball Arena is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Golden State beat Denver 118-113 in Game 3 Thursday, covering as a 2.5-point road favorite and the Over cashed on a 223-point total.
The Nuggets gave an all-in effort, nearly tripling the Warriors in rebounding rate and outperforming Golden State in three of the “four factors.” Denver big, and MVP finalist, Nikola Jokic scored a game-high 37 points on 63.6% shooting with 18 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals.
However, the Warriors sunk seven more 3-pointers than the Nuggets and outshot Denver 67.6-56.9% in effective field goal rate (eFG%).
Warriors at Nuggets odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Warriors -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Nuggets +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
- Against the spread: Warriors -4.5 (-112) | Nuggets +4.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: 224.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Warriors at Nuggets key injuries
Warriors
- None
Nuggets
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
- PF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
[tipico]
Warriors at Nuggets picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 116, Warriors 112
Money line
PASS with a “lean” towards the Nuggets (+155) since I’m on Denver plus the points and generally will sprinkle on an underdog’s ML when betting their spread.
However, the Warriors are outperforming the Nuggets in three of the “four factors” and are scoring 14.4 more points per 100 possessions in this series.
Denver has no answer for Golden State’s 3-guard lineup with Steph Curry, Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson, all of which are shooting at least 50.0% from the field and 44.0% from behind the arc.
Despite how bleak things look for the Nuggets, they can stave off elimination if the Warriors have an off-shooting night and Denver’s role players step up and help out Jokic. But, I wouldn’t bet on it.
PASS.
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Against the spread
LEAN NUGGETS +4.5 (-108) mostly because roughly two-thirds of the public is betting the Warriors.
The more bet team in Saturday’s playoff games according to pregame.com were 1-3 ATS and the contrarian mindset is typically profitable in sports betting.
Basketball is about accumulating possessions and the desperation of preventing a sweep will help Denver gain more possessions than Golden State. The Nuggets already have an edge in rebounding but the Warriors also had the second-worst offensive turnover rate in the regular season.
The NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 224.5 (-112) because both offenses match up well with their opponents’ defense. Denver’s perimeter defense stands no chance against the Warriors who are second in 3-point attempt rate, fourth in free-throw attempt rate and the best true shooting percentage in the playoffs.
If the Nuggets can continue their dominance on the glass then Denver can convert offensive rebounds into easy second-chance points. Also, the Nuggets were first in eFG% during the regular season.
However, it’s only a LEAN to the OVER 224.5 (-112) because most of the market we’ll probably be taking the Over and I hate following the herd.
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