The No. 6 seed Denver Nuggets (0-2) host the No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors (2-0) Thursday for Game 3 at Ball Arena for their Western Conference first-round playoff series. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Golden State crushed Denver 126-106 Monday in Game 2 due in large part to the Warriors outscoring the Nuggets 44-30 in the third quarter. Golden State also outshot Denver 54.8-42.5% from the field and committed 7 fewer turnovers.
The Warriors have covered four straight meetings with the Nuggets and are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five visits to Denver.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA April 21 playoff breakdown
Warriors at Nuggets odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Warriors -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Nuggets +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread: Warriors -2.5 (-110) | Nuggets +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 222.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
Warriors at Nuggets key injuries
Warriors
- SF Andre Iguodala (neck) probable
Nuggets
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
- PF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
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Warriors at Nuggets picks and predictions
Prediction
Warriors 112, Nuggets 108
Money line
I only LEAN WARRIORS (-140) because I expect a Herculean effort from MVP finalist, and reigning MVP, Nikola Jokic.
I don’t think the Joker lets the Nuggets get swept so I wouldn’t put a big bet on the Warriors. However, Denver looks overwhelmed and Nuggets teammates were bickering with one another during Golden State’s second-half run in Game 2.
Warriors SG Jordan Poole‘s emergence as a legit playoff-scoring option has made Golden State’s backcourt edge over Denver insurmountable.
Perhaps the high altitude of Denver and/or an all-in effort from the Nuggets propels them past Golden State in Game 3. However, it feels like the WARRIORS (-140) are going to sweep the Nuggets.
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Against the spread
PASS because Golden State’s ML is a fair price that’s preferable over the Warriors -2.5 (-110).
I could see Game 3 of this series playing out similar to Wednesday’s 76ers-Raptors meeting, which was decided by a game-winning 3-pointer from C Joel Embiid with less than a second remaining in overtime.
Granted, 76ers-Raptors ended with a 3-point margin but I’d rather take Golden State’s ML than sweat the Warriors -2.5 (-110) covering the spread.
Over/Under
Against all logic, BET the UNDER 222.5 (-107) fading the market and following the reverse line movement (RLM).
Most of the cash is on the Over but the Warriors-Nuggets total has been lowered from a 226-point look-ahead down to the current number according to Pregame.com.
This RLM is even more notable when you consider how Denver’s defense has zero answers for Golden State’s offense and the Nuggets’ role players should play better now that the series is on their home floor. But, the oddsmakers have baked this logic into the line.
Since we want to be on the same side as the House, which is trying to induce more Over action, the UNDER 222.5 (-107) appears to be the sharp side of the total.
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