Analytics are everything in the NFL these days, unless they’re not. It’s a really strange fine line that often gets clouded, especially when it comes time to argue about the value of sacks vs. the value of quarterback pressures (as one of many examples).
There is no level of consistency to it, and the same people who will tell you New York Giants general manager Dave Gettleman is foolish for trading for defensive lineman Leonard Williams will be the first to ignore the analytics suggesting Williams is far more dominant than his sack numbers would suggest.
The same applies to other positions and scenarios, including the 2020 NFL Draft.
Pro Football Focus, a leader in football analytics, recently released a mock draft that focused solely on analytics coupled with team needs. And for the Giants? Well, let’s say that led to an interesting selection at No. 4 overall.
4. NEW YORK GIANTS — WR HENRY RUGGS III, ALABAMA
GC: The worst thing that can happen to the Giants is ending up in a position where they don’t quite know about Daniel Jones because he has yet to throw to a legit set of receivers. As important as throwing the football is, getting open and catching the football is the second most valuable component of the passing game. Ruggs possesses the athleticism that every offense dreams of, and he gets open at all levels of the field. While many have his teammate, Jerry Jeudy, as their top WR, our projections slightly favor Ruggs. Ruggs lined up primarily out wide, where he was dominant at all levels of the field, while Jeudy saw a majority of his snaps lined up in the slot. Our very own Timo Riske wrote about the difference between the types of receivers and showed that the difference between elite and average is far smaller for slot receivers than it is for players who line up on the outside.
The selection of Ruggs, who as PFF mentions is not even considered WR1 by most experts, comes with players like Chase Young, Isaiah Simmons, Tristan Wirfs and Mekhi Becton still on the board. In fact, Becton completely falls out of Round 1 in this mock draft.
It’s a strange dynamic to look at a mock draft through the lens of analytics alone, and it certainly some questions.
Speaking of questions, let us pose this one to you, Giants fans… Would you be happy with Ruggs at No. 4 with so many other talents still on the board?
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