On the surface, New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones did not fair particularly well in his second NFL season.
Jones finished the year having completed 62.5% of his passes for 2,943 yards, 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 14 games. He added 11 fumbles, which is becoming a persistent and concerning issue.
But when drilling down the numbers, there is more than meets the eye. Beyond having to learn his second offensive system in as many years without the benefit of OTAs, minicamp or the preseason, Jones also faced the toughest strength of schedule (vs. opposing defenses) in the NFL by a clear mile.
Final strength of schedule for QBs in terms of opposing pass defenses.
The value on the x-axis can be interpreted as the number you have to add to the QBs' EPA/pass play figure to get a defense-adjusted version. In particular, negative numbers mean an easier schedule. pic.twitter.com/cX1AGsgYXM
— Moo (@PFF_Moo) January 5, 2021
There were moments throughout the season where things appeared to be coming together for Jones and the Giants offense, but they were always fleeting. In the end, they finished the season as one of the worst units (in most metrics) across the league.
“Throughout the season, I felt like we made considerable improvement week to week. It wasn’t a straight incline. There were bumps in the road. There were games that we didn’t play as well and took steps back. But I felt like we continued to improve and work through challenges, work through hard times and hard situations,” Jones said.
“We’re not overly concerned about the numbers. I’m certainly not overly concerned about my numbers. I think the most important stat is points and how that’s reflected, and winning games. As an offense, your job is to score points. We did that well at times and didn’t do it as well at other times. We’ve got to be more consistent converting those opportunities.”
Jones’ production is what ultimately sets the tone for the offense and he has a direct hand in how many points they score. In that regard, Jones didn’t get the job done in 2020 and it doesn’t matter how difficult the schedule was he faced. You play the hand you’ve been dealt.
Still, the analytics suggest Jones improved in his second season. His completion percentage rose from 61.9% to 62.5% and that was also reflected in his adjusted completion percentage (on-target passes), which rose from 72.3% to 74.8%.
When factoring in that his receivers consistently struggled to create separation and an offensive line that was among the worst in pass protection, that’s a substantial leap forward.
Jones also saw an improvement in various grades (per PFF). His overall grade improved from 65.9 to 78.4, while his pass grade improved from 65.6 to 74.4 and his run grade from 59.0 to 78.8. Even his fumbling grade, which is still abysmal, improved from 26.7 to 36.6.
These improvement came despite Jones facing more pressure and his receivers dropping more passes. He was sacked 45 times in 2020 compared to just 38 as a rookie (PFF has that number at 40), while his receivers dropped 29 on-target passes compared to 21 in 2019.
Overall, Jones finished the season as the 16th highest-graded passer in the NFL and the third highest-graded passer on deep balls.
Perhaps the biggest discrepancy between grades and stats, Jones played far better than the stat sheet would suggest in 2020. He ranked in the middle of the pack in the percentage of positives, negatives, big-time throws and turnover-worthy plays, with Jones’ most notable work coming deep down the field, where he earned the No. 3 passing grade among signal-callers.
These still aren’t the kind of numbers you want to see for a quarterback taken with the No. 6 overall pick, but like the Giants themselves, it’s clear that Jones is taking steps and strides in the right direction.
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