When Geno Smith became the Seattle Seahawks’ franchise quarterback (and the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year) in the 2022 season, he had the league’s third-most attempts with two tight ends on the field — 159 per Sports Info Solutions, of which he completed 117 for 1,190 yards, 759 air yards, 11 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 104.5. Smith had 40 attempts with three tight ends on the field — only Patrick Mahomes had more with 67 — and Smith completed 30 of those passes for 305 yards, 105 air yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a passer rating of 107.8.
In the more standard 11 personnel — one running back, one tight end, and three receivers — Smith had 387 attempts, which ranked 13th in the league. Smith completed 260 of those passes for 2,790 yards, 1,666 air yards, 20 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a passer rating of 97.8.
Through the first 12 weeks of the 2023 season, Smith has just 62 attempts with two tight ends on the field, which ranks 13th. He’s completed 49 of those passes for 553 yards, 302 air yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 125.3. Smith has just 17 attempts with three tight ends on the field — seventh-most in the league — and he’s completed 12 of those passes for 180 yards, 98 air yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 105.0.
That leaves 11 personnel as a primary construct for Seattle’s 2023 passing game, and this season, Smith has 265 attempts, which ranks 14th. He’s completed 165 passes in 11 for 1,716 yards, 895 air yards, seven touchdowns, seven of his eight interceptions (the other one came out of 10 personnel), and a passer rating of 78.8, which ranks 24th among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts in 11 personnel.
The first-round selection of Ohio State receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba presaged more 11 personnel this season once the rookie got into the swing of things with fellow receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but it doesn’t seem as if Smith has caught up to the idea. More specifically, Smith, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, and head coach Pete Carroll have all spoken this week about Smith’s need to get the ball out more quickly, and more on time with the route concepts. It hasn’t been a problem in those tight end-heavy formations, but with a new mainstay and new concepts, the timing is clearly off, and it’s affected the offense all year long.
It’s a bad time for this to be happening. The 6-5 Seahawks are fighting for postseason relevance after getting thrashed by the San Francisco 49ers on Thanksgiving night, and they’re up this Thursday against a Dallas Cowboys defense that has the lowest opponent passer rating allowed against 11 personnel — 72.6, which you get when you allow 141 of 239 attempts for 1,485 yards, nine touchdowns, and eight interceptions. (By the way, the 49ers that just whooped up on Seattle lead the league with 13 interceptions against 11 personnel). Also by the way, Cowboys star cornerback DaRon Bland, who has already set the NFL single-season record with five pick-sixes, has four of those interception touchdowns against 11 personnel.
In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys use tape and advanced metrics to get into what’s going on here.
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You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os” right here:
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Before we get into the issues Seattle clearly faces with personnel and efficiency in the passing game, let’s chop up what everyone’s saying about it.