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The Duke Blue Devils (9-3) and No. 15 Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) meet Thursday in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. Kickoff from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Duke vs. Ole Miss odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Blue Devils exceeded expectations with a 9-win season, closing out the regular season with a 3-game win streak. Their 23-17 victory at the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, covering as 3.5-point favorites, capped off a 5-3 ACC record, tying them for fourth place in the conference.
QB Maalik Murphy, who threw 26 TDs (fourth in the ACC), was a key driver of the offense. However, he announced his transfer to Oregon State and will miss this bowl game.
Duke’s defense was a strength, ranking second in the ACC, allowing just 22.2 points per game (PPG). DE Wesley Williams was a standout, recording 8 sacks, ranking fifth in the conference.
The Blue Devils have been successful in recent bowl games, winning 5 in a row starting with a 44-41 OT win in the 2015 Pinstripe Bowl. Last season, Duke upset the Troy Trojans 17-10 in the Birmingham Bowl where the Blue Devils were 6.5-point underdogs and the Under (44) hit. They’ll lean heavily on their defense as they aim to extend the bowl win streak.
Ole Miss had big expectations hoping to make the College Football Playoff but fell short after losing 3 SEC games — home vs. Kentucky, at LSU in OT and at Florida. They closed the regular season with a 26-14 win over in-state rival Mississippi State, although they failed to cover as a 26-point home favorites with the Under (63.5) cashing.
QB Jaxson Dart led the SEC with 3,875 regular-season passing yards with 26 TDs and just 6 interceptions. WR Tre Harris had a standout season, with 60 catches for 1,030 yards (second SEC) and 7 TDs. The defense was also strong, allowing only 13.9 points per game (second SEC) and an conference-best 83.5 rushing yards per game.
Ole Miss snapped a two-game bowl losing streak in 2023 with a 38-25 Peach Bowl victory over Penn State. The Rebels won outright as 6-point underdogs and the Under (52.5) cashed.
These 2 college programs have never met on the football field.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Duke vs. Ole Miss odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 1:10 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Duke +550 (bet $100 to win $550) | Ole Miss -800 (bet $800 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Duke +17.5 (-110) | Ole Miss -17.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 51.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Duke vs. Ole Miss picks and predictions
Prediction
Ole Miss 34, Duke 13
Moneyline
PASS.
The Rebels (-800) will handle their business here and make short work of the Blue Devils (+550), but the price is way too steep. I’ll take my wager to the spread because it’s not wise to back anything with -800 juice.
Against the spread
BET OLE MISS -17.5 (-110).
The big question going into this game is whether Ole Miss will stay motivated after being left out of the College Football Playoff. But with Dart and most of the skill players set to play, it’s clear the Rebels are out to prove they should have been included. Coach Lane Kiffin has been vocal about how he thinks Ole Miss is better than some of the teams that made the cut.
The Blue Devils had a solid season in the ACC, but their story ends here. Their defense struggled against offenses like Miami’s, which put up 53 points on them. With QB Murphy out, their chances are slim.
Even if Murphy didn’t transfer, Ole Miss is the better team and would’ve controlled this game. The Rebels offense is too strong, and their defense is tough. If the Rebels show up ready to play, expect them to win by 3-plus touchdowns.
I’m confident taking OLE MISS -17.5 (-110) to cover the spread.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 51.5 (-110).
Duke has a strong defense, but Ole Miss has one of the best in the country, allowing just 13.9 points per game, ranking fourth overall. That defense is mostly why the Rebels hit the Under in 10 of their 12 games this season.
Duke went Under in 5 of its last 8 games. With no Murphy under center, the Blue Devils offense will be very limited. This game is set up for the UNDER 51.5 (-110), which is my favorite bet in the 2025 Gator Bowl.
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