With the Clemson Tigers winless in their first two conference games, there will be a new ACC champion for just the second time since 2014.
Florida State, who marched into Death Valley last week and left with a comeback victory in overtime, has the inside track at the playoffs after wins over the Tigers and No. 12 LSU. On the stat sheet, the favoritism is deserved, The tough opening schedule gives them the second-best strength of record in the country. But ESPN’s FPI says the Seminoles still have less than a 50% chance to win the conference crown, a good reminder of how young the college football season still is.
Consensus opinions seem to point toward North Carolina, led by quarterback phenom Drake Maye, as the ones who can squash the Seminoles. If Duke can put a second feather in their cap against Notre Dame on Saturday, the Blue Devils will surely fly up the board. And ESPN’s models seem to think Syracuse shouldn’t be taken lightly. But the biggest threat comes from farther south, a 4-0 ACC team not making much national news now.
The Miami Hurricanes sit inside the top four in the conference in scoring offense, rushing offense, passing offense, scoring defense, and rushing defense. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, a year removed from first-round buzz, has the second-highest QBR in the country.
After this week against Georgia Tech, Miami plays the Tarheels and Clemson back-to-back. If they sweep those, the Nov. 11 game against Florida State could be for ACC supremacy.
Here’s how ESPN breaks down the percentages:
| Team | W-L | Conf. W-L | FPI (Rank) | Win Conference % | Make Playoff % |
| Florida State | 4-0 | 2-0 | 19.9 (10) | 48.2% | 30.4% |
| Miami Hurricanes | 4-0 | 0-0 | 16.9 (15) | 18.3% | 11.3% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 4-0 | 1-0 | 13.5 (19) | 10.2% | 4.3% |
| Louisville Cardinals | 4-0 | 2-0 | 11.6 (23) | 9.9% | 1.9% |
| Syracuse Orange | 4-0 | 0-0 | 13.4 (20) | 7.7% | 3.4% |
| Duke Blue Devils | 4-0 | 1-0 | 10.8 (28) | 4.7% | 1.4% |
| Clemson Tigers | 2-2 | 0-2 | 14.1 (17) | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| NC State Wolfpack | 3-1 | 1-0 | 2.5 (53) | 0.3% | 0.0% |