The North Carolina Tar Heels (14-8, 8-5 ACC) host the No. 9 Florida State Seminoles (14-3, 10-2) for an ACC battle at Dean Smith Center. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Florida State-North Carolina odds and lines, with NCAA college basketball picks and predictions.
Rankings courtesy of Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Florida State at North Carolina: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Florida State -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | North Carolina +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Against the spread/ATS: Florida State -3.5 (-105) | North Carolina +3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 151.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Florida State at North Carolina: Three things to know
- Florida State has rattled off four straight wins and has nine victories in its last 10 games (7-2-1 ATS). The stretch includes a 21-point beatdown of then-No. 8 Virginia as a 2-point home favorite and an 82-75 victory over North Carolina last month.
- North Carolina split its last four games with each ending in a double-digit margin one way or the other. The Tar Heels got trounced 83-70 their last time out by the Big East’s Marquette as 9.5-point home favorites.
- The Seminoles have won three of their last four against the Tar Heels but North Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
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Florida State at North Carolina: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Florida State 84, North Carolina 72
Money line (ML)
PASS with a lean on Florida State (-160) only because this price is on the fringe of a money line favorite I’d play in the regular season.
For the record, I wouldn’t hate taking the Seminoles to win outright and/or including their money line in a parlay with Texas Tech.
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Against the spread (ATS)
BET FLORIDA STATE -3.5 (-105) because North Carolina was handled in the first meeting and had a lot in its favor entering the game. The Seminoles were without star freshman PG Scottie Barnes and the Tar Heels had a rebounding mismatch they couldn’t exploit.
North Carolina grabs the most offensive rebounds per game (15.0) in the country while Florida State is 265th in opponent’s offensive rebounds per game (10.7). The Seminoles are 29th in defensive field-goal percentage at the rim, according to Hoop-Math.com, so they aren’t sweating North Carolina getting second chances.
Also, Florida State is the 11th best 3-point shooting team in the nation and North Carolina has the 283rd ranked 3-point defense. Lastly, the Seminoles are 246th in defensive free-throw rate and the Tar Heels have the 322nd-highest free-throw percentage.
BET FLORIDA STATE -3.5 (-105) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
I feel very strongly Florida State will have success executing its offense, especially with Barnes active for this game, and the Seminoles’ 3-point defense is a little sketchy as well.
The Tar Heels knocked down 41.7% of their threes in the first head-to-head meeting so when you combine North Carolina’s offensive rebounding edge and Florida State’s shaky 3-point defense that should equal a decent offensive performance from the Tar Heels.
Lean OVER 151.5 (-110) for a half-unit.
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