The Oregon Ducks are back in action this week with a Friday night showdown against the California Golden Bears, and they will have a prime opportunity to get back into the good graces of the College Football Playoff Committee after losing their first game of the season in Week 5 against the Stanford Cardinal.
While any normal game against the less-talented Cal team would be a low-priority watch on a Saturday full of games, Oregon’s bout with the Golden Bears comes in primetime on ESPN. A perfect chance to show that they are better than a team who can’t get bast Pac-12 North foes.
As it stands now, the Ducks’ chances to make it to the College Football Playoff took a major hit with the loss, where they are now given just a 16% chance to make it to the CFP, according to FiveThirtyEight. On top of that, the popular polling site gives Oregon just a 2% chance of winning the national championship.
What’s interesting, though, is how FiveThirtyEight projects the Ducks’ chances are changed with a win against Cal. Should they improve to 5-1 on the season, their chances to make the CFP go up only to 17%, which is understandable seeing as they have several tough games left on the schedule, including at UCLA, at Washington, and vs. Oregon State. However, if Oregon were to win out and finish the season with just one loss, FiveThirtyEight gives them an 89% chance to make the playoff, and a 13% chance to win it all.
That is certainly a big ask, with the aforementioned games left on the docket, not to mention the rash of injuries so far this season and a seemingly inept passing offense that leaves a lot to be desired.
Nonetheless, though, it should give Oregon fans hope. The loss to Stanford was a tough one to swallow, but all is not yet lost for the season.
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