Philip Rivers: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Again, I hedge my Arians-related bets with a second option for the bespectacled QB guru.
If Tampa Bay moves on from Jameis Winston (more on him in a moment) and decides to draft a rookie quarterback to build around, there is a chance that inexperienced passer might not be ready to start Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season. They might want to secure a veteran passer to serve as the bridge from their current situation to the quarterback of the future.
That passer could be Rivers.
Rivers has traditionally been a solid deep passer, which would make him a fit in Arians’ downfield-based offense. Last season Rivers had an IAY of 8.6 yards per attempt, with was tied with Patrick Mahomes. His numbers a season ago on throws downfield (defined as throws more than 20 yards) were not exactly earth-shattering, as Rivers threw nine interceptions on such throws in 2019. (By comparison, Jameis Winston threw seven).
But 2019 was a down year for Rivers overall. In 2018, when he led the Chargers back to the playoffs, Rivers was more impressive when he pushed the football downfield. That year he threw for seven touchdowns on throws 20+ yards downfield (against just five interceptions) and on downfield throws his quarterback rating was 90.7.
It is also important to remember how Rivers started his career, playing under Marty Schottenheimer. While many associate the elder Schottenheimer with the idea of “Marty Ball,” which is a ball-control, run-heavy offense, this system was rooted in the Coryell offense when it came to throwing the football. While Rivers has played for a number of different offensive coordinators, playing under Arians would get him back to his roots as a passer.
With a move to Tampa Bay, Rivers could close out his career in a system that fit his skills, under a head coach who likes a more aggressive-minded quarterback at the helm, and close to home (Rivers declared back in January that the family was moving to Florida to be “closer to home.”). This is also a path down which Arians has walked previously in his career. While in Arizona he acquired Carson Palmer at the end of his playing days, and the two enjoyed success together out in the desert. So Arians has gone the veteran route before.
Of course, such a move would require finding a new home for Winston, so…