Ryan Tannehill: New England Patriots
This one might take some convincing. So I’ll make my case and then see if I’m allowed to return home to Waltham anytime soon (Go Hawks!)
As some who grew up in the Boston area, who grew up a Patriots fan, who hosts a Patriots podcast, who lives with Patriots fans (although my daughter took a shine to the San Francisco 49ers this season) I get asked the Brady question all the time.
I don’t know, okay? I don’t know where Brady is going next year. I still think he returns to New England, but I do not know.
I also think that if Brady leaves town the quarterback who is the likely favorite to replace him is already on their roster: Jarrett Stidham. The Patriots have been impressed with his progress from rookie mini-camp to last year, and should Brady move on my expectation would be that the organization sees what they have in Stidham before anything else.
But if they were to entertain a free agent quarterback, Tannehill would be a good fit for them.
Why? It begins with accuracy. The New England system puts a premium on putting the ball where it needs to be. Of course, all offenses do this, but the Patriots rely heavily on match-ups and yardage after the catch, and it is hard to generate YAC if receivers are twisting or adjusting to poorly-placed throws.
Remember what we said a few moments ago, about xCOMP? It was Tannehill who had the biggest jump in 2019 from his completion percentage to his xCOMP. Tannehill’s 2019 competion percentage was 70.3. His xCOMP was 62.2. That jump of 8.1 was the highest in the league. Tannehill puts the ball where it needs to be.
Another thing that the Patriots stress in their offense is decision-making. Not making mistakes with the football. Tannehill threw six interceptions last season but in preparation for the Wild Card round last year I went back and studied all six of them.
One was a throw on fourth down with under two minutes left against Denver, when he stepped in to replace an ineffective Marcus Mariota. The Titans were trailing 16-0, and he tried to make something happen.
One was an interception against the Los Angeles Chargers when he was hit as he was pulling the trigger, and the ball was intercepted.
One was a post route against Carolina in Week 9, where he missed it slightly high, the pass was tipped and intercepted.
One was another interception against the Panthers, his second of the game. He tried to throw a seam route against a two-deep coverage to his slot receiver and left it too far inside, and it was intercepted. This was comes down to poor placement than anything else.
His other two interceptions? Both passes that were deflected and intercepted.
The point? Tannehill was not making a ton of bad decisions last season.
Finally, there is this to consider: The direction of the Patriots offense. Of course, part of this trend might be due to what the team feels about Brady, but we all recall during their Super Bowl run two seasons ago how they became a heavy 21-personnel team, working off play-action and trying to run the football with Sony Michel behind James Develin.
That fits exactly with what Tannehill excelled at last season. Working off play-action and attacking the defense when they sold out against stopping Derrick Henry. After all, how did Tannehill fare on play-action? According to Pro Football Focus charting, his completion percentage increased from 67.5% on non-play-action plays to 76.7% on play-action designs, and his quarterback rating jumped similarly from 104.5 to 143.3.
Tannehill seems ideal for where New England is trending as an offense.