Drew Brees: Las Vegas Raiders
Now obviously, expectations are also high that Brees returns to New Orleans. Brees himself confirmed as such on Thursday morning during an appearance on “The Greg Hill Show” on WEEI in Boston, saying that “I don’t care what the offer would be or what the situation might be, I am Who Dat Nation for life.”
Seems pretty concrete.
But since speculation is fun (and after all, it is just the beginning of March) what would be a potential fit for Brees outside of the Saints?
When thinking about such a landing spot, it is important to focus first on how Brees wins as a passer. His strengths at this point in his career are what they have been virtually his entire career: His processing speed and his deadly accuracy.
Brees is a super-computer on the field, who knows exactly what he is getting from the defense on any given snap and consequently what his best read or match-up is once the ball is in play. Watch any of his games and you will see a skillful surgeon at work, carving up a defense as they try and keep up with what he is reading and throwing.
This ability to diagnose and decipher what a defense is doing enables him to get the ball out of his hands quicker than almost anyone in the NFL. Last season Brees averaged an incredible 2.57 seconds from snap to throw, as calculated by NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Only Andy Dalton was faster, clocking in at 2.51 seconds. As a defensive pass rush you just cannot get home to the quarterback when the ball is coming out that quickly with any level of consistency.
Finally, there is his accuracy. Sure, completion percentage is one way to measure that, and Brees led the league with a completion percentage of 74.3%. But thankfully we have other ways of highlighting just how on-point passers are in today’s NFL. Next Gen Stats also tracks “Expected Completion Percentage,” (xCOMP) which uses a passer’s “Completion Probability” on a given play to determine what the completion percentage is expected to be. For those wondering, “Completion Probability” is defined as “probability of a pass completion, based on numerous factors such as receiver separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, the separation the passer had at time of throw from the nearest pass rusher, and more.”
Last season, Brees’ xCOMP was 68%, meaning that his actual completion percentage of 74.3% was an increase of 6.3 over what he was expected to do. That…is accuracy. Only Ryan Tannehill’s increase of 8 was higher. For reference here are some notable numbers on the other end of the scale: Dwayne Haskins (-4.6), Josh Allen (-3.7), Jared Goff (-3.6) and yes Tom Brady (-3.1).
Putting all these traits together, you have a passer who is supremely accurate with the football, who gets the ball out of his hands quickly, and who carves up the defense with his mind. Who would like… that guy?
Jon Gruden would love that guy.
It makes sense, given that Sean Payton is a Gruden disciple and both offenses are rooted in West Coast philosophy. If you look at their playbooks, you will see a ton of the same designs and concepts. Brees could drop into a Raiders huddle right now and be ready to roll, and there would be minimal learning curve for him.
Of course, it is a pipe dream. Brees told us so on Thursday. But the NFL off-season is time for fans to dream, and the idea of Brees and Gruden together is somewhat heavenly.