Dak Prescott: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It is largely expected that the Dallas Cowboys are going to find a way to bring Prescott back into the fold, whether by using the franchise tag on their current QB or working out a long-term deal.
However, should Prescott find himself on his way out of town, there would be a number of teams lining up for his services. Despite being a fourth-round selection, Prescott has shown the ability to create outside of the pocket and off-structure, and has vastly outplayed his draft position over his time in the league.
The fit here in Tampa Bay under Bruce Arians makes sense for a number of reasons. First, there would be a high level of schematic familiarity. You look at the playbooks that Prescott has been working from the past few seasons and there is a great deal of overlap between what he was running in Dallas, and what he would be running in Tampa Bay.
Under head coach Jason Garrett and his first offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, Prescott was running an offense heavily influenced by Air Coryell concepts. Lots of vertical concepts down the field, lots of three-level reads to one side of the formation such as flood or sail, with a backside route to use as bait for the free safety, and designed shot plays to stress the defense vertically. That fits precisely with what Arians runs. Another way to measure this is statistically, via Average Intended Air Yards (IAY) from NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Last season Prescott’s passes and an IAY of 9.3 yards, sixth-most in the NFL. Only Matthew Stafford, Jameis Winston, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson and Josh Allen had a higher average. Prescott, as Arians might say, was “riskin’ it.”
Secondly, keeping Prescott in such a system plays to his strengths as a quarterback. Prescott is a good downfield thrower, and is also very dangerous in scramble drill situations when the play breaks down and he can create outside of the pocket. Putting him into an offense, such as a more West Coast system, where the ball is designed to get out quickly to receivers in space, reduces the opportunities for Prescott to take advantage of this ability. It would neutralize him in a way, and the job of a coach is to put his or her players in position where they can thrive. Hamstringing him would not make sense.
Now, as I wrote in the scheme fit piece for the draft quarterbacks, I have been wrong on an Arians pairing before. Once more, I will hedge my bets by including another potential landing spot for the Kangol-wearing quarterback guru. But if I were Arians, I’d at least put in a call to Prescott once free agency hits.