The 3-1 Green Bay Packers take on the surprise 3-1 New York Giants, who, under new head coach Brian Daboll, have revitalized Saquon Barkley and been the winners of some close contests.
Before these two teams face off on Sunday in London, I have my final thoughts on the matchup.
– The Giants’ defense leads the NFL in blitz rate this season. It will be interesting to see if they continue with that trend against the Packers. For one, Aaron Rodgers has been very good against the blitz. And two, with some time, he could find some downfield success against a so-so secondary.
– In addition to blitzing a lot, the Giants are among the best situational defenses in the NFL, ranking second in both red zone and third down defense. To counter this, finding success on early downs will be a must for the Packers. They’ll accomplish this through the run and quick passing games.
– Look for Aaron Jones to have success outside the tackle box. The Giants have struggled to set the edge and contain running backs. New York is allowing 5.1 yards per carry this season.
– Tackling is always an important aspect of the game, but if the Packers are off as they were in Weeks 1 and 2, Saquon Barkley will make them pay. He is among the best in terms of yards after contact and missed tackles forced. As Matt LaFleur has said, all 11 hats to the ball.
– I’m hoping we see some heavier boxes on Sunday. We know that the Giants are going to lean on the run game, and Daniel Jones’ has been reluctant to push the ball downfield. The main purpose of Joe Barry’s Cover-2 scheme is to take away the big passing play, but if that isn’t much of a concern against New York, we need to see some flexibility from Barry by prioritizing the run game.
– In addition to Barry making adjustments, the defense has to be better at tackling, setting the edge, and gap responsibilities. All of these have been issues at points this season and contributed to the issues against the run.
– Off of the run game, watch for the Giants to utilize play-action, where Jones has been very efficient this season, completing 78% of his attempts with two touchdowns.
– As good as the Giants have been at running the ball, they have really struggled in pass protection, allowing the highest pressure rate this season, according to Pro Football Reference. With that said, Daniel Jones hasn’t helped out his offensive line either by holding on to the football.
– How do Rodgers and the young receivers handle this Giants’ defense? Wink Martindale can cause a lot of confusion with the secondary’s late movement and mixture of zone and man coverages.
– The Packers did not elevate anyone from the practice squad for Sunday’s game, which is a good sign for Adrian Amos, who has been in concussion protocol. In addition to the defense getting a boost with his return, so does special teams. Last week with Rudy Ford in for Amos, he didn’t play as many special teams snaps, and it’s not a coincidence that the punt coverage team wasn’t as effective without him.
– This is the first week of a lot of travel for the Packers. Following this game in London, they return home without a bye to take on the New York Jets and then have three straight road games.
– Giants interior defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence has had a fantastic start to the season, ranking second in pressures within his position group and ninth in PFF’s pass rush productivity. He will challenge the Packers’ interior linemen, and with how often New York blitzes, double-teaming him may not be an easy task.
– LaFleur has said a few times this week that whoever handles the travel the best this week will likely play the best on Sunday.
– When Christian Watson is in motion, even when he doesn’t get the ball, it really helps to open up running lanes for the Packers’ running backs. It holds the linebackers and can get the defense moving away from where the ball is going.
– Ball security has been an issue for the Packers through four games. They’ve lost a fumble each week, and Rodgers has three interceptions.
– Richie James Jr. has been a favorite target of Daniel Jones out of the slot. With Jarie Alexander back, we may end up seeing Rasul Douglas matched up with him quite a bit. Sterling Shepard, meanwhile, has the most targets on the team with 21. Overall, the Gaints’ receivers have underwhelmed this season. Another reason to be aggressive against the run.
– With the Giants’ success on the ground coupled with the defense’s ability to mix coverages and generate pressure, I would see this being another frustrating game for the Packers. However, I do expect them to win.