One opponent stands between the Cincinnati Bengals and the franchise’s first Lombardi Trophy.
Said opponent is the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI.
Those Rams won 12 games, emerging from one of the toughest divisions in football, the NFC West, where three teams had 10-plus wins, before seizing the NFC. They’re playing at their home stadium and happen to do a lot of things well that can hurt the Bengals in matchups.
The question is simple — will it matter?
The Bengals are a big-time story too. The short and sweet of it? Six wins over two prior rebuilding years, 10 wins this season while sweeping Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Las Vegas and Kansas City. Two losses were in overtime by three points apiece to Super Bowl contenders (Green Bay, San Francisco) and another was in Week 18 while starters rested. Three playoff wins, including one in Tennessee and one in Arrowhead Stadium while erasing an 18-point deficit.
Many metrics will tell onlookers this one is a mismatch. Football Outsiders’ DVOA says the Rams finished second, the Bengals finished 11th. Aaron Donald, Von Miller and others could end up feasting against a struggling Bengals offensive line. Matthew Stafford is a big-game quarterback surrounded by a fantasy football-styled roster of weapons directed by one of the game’s brightest minds, Sean McVay.
But the Bengals present plenty of problems for the Rams no matter what metrics suggest, too. Look at the Ja’Marr Chase problem — if the Rams throw Jalen Ramsey on Chase, that leaves Darious Williams (5’9″) on Tee Higgins (6’4″), which is a massive mismatch. If they throw Ramsey on Higgins because of size and try to double Chase, the fifth-overall pick could pop off anyway. We’ve seen Chase get the best of both double-teams and top-flight corners like Marlon Humphrey.
That’s just talking about the boundary. The Rams ranked 29th in DVOA when defending the middle of the field and that’s not going to change now. That’s Tyler Boyd and C.J. Uzomah territory, all while the Rams funnel resources at the boundary guys. And they can throw other guys over the middle — per those FO numbers, Higgins’ 22 catches on 27 targets in the middle of the field gained a first down or scored a touchdown.
Or written a much shorter way — this is exactly why they drafted Chase, exactly the type of matchup. He might not put up huge numbers, but somebody probably will.
Of course, none of that happens without the offensive line keeping Joe Burrow clean. Or at least conventional wisdom says that — he took nine sacks in Tennessee and they still won. You can bet he’ll be calm, confident and navigating messy pockets well, but it sure wouldn’t hurt to see his jersey clean by night’s end.
One reason for optimism that the touted Rams defensive line might not make the impact the national coverage thinks? As we detailed in our underrated players who could swing the Super Bowl piece, center Trey Hopkins, after coming back early from an injury to start the year, has dramatically improved as the season has continued. And the last time he faced Donald? Zero sacks, one pressure. A few years ago, but don’t discount it entirely, either.
That’s not to suggest the line will silence the Rams’ pass-rush. But it just needs to hold up so Burrow can execute a quick-hitting attack. If he’s peppering the middle of the field all day and sprinkling in a few deep shots on the boundary when the matchup is right, Donald and Co. might not feature as heavily in this as folks think.
None of this means anything if Lou Anarumo’s defense doesn’t have another Bill Belichickian-sort of adaption in the second half again. What has drove opposing offenses to madness about the Bengals defense this year is the fact they 1.) don’t blitz a ton, or pretty much ever 2.) start games extremely vanilla, then morph their complex defense based on what the opponent’s doing.
Hence, holding Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to three points in the second half — in Week 17 and AFC title game wins.
A similar performance would swing things dramatically for the Bengals. It doesn’t hurt to mention that, good as Stafford is, he led the NFL in interceptions and pick-sixes.
If the Bengals aren’t blitzing a lot and the coverage is solid enough, we could easily see Stafford struggle with risky throws — or end up in the arms of Trey Hendrickson. Cooper Kupp, the Rams’ MVP-level wideout, is perhaps the biggest threat on the field. But it’s worth pointing out that back in 2019 when Mike Hilton was still in Pittsburgh, the Steelers put him one-on-one with Kupp often and Kupp had zero catches on four targets. Stafford isn’t Jared Goff, etc. etc., but if Hilton could hold up in that one-on-one even half as good, it’s hard to see how the Rams put up a ton of points.
This all sounds very optimistic, of course. As has been the theme all year, the Bengals can really beat themselves sometimes, whether it’s a bad gameplan or digging themselves a hole and not having the proper equipment necessary to get back out. Maybe the adjustment to hot LA weather leads to cramping and conditioning issues that derails things.
But vibes matter too, weird as it might sound.
Onlookers have seen this sort of energy from a Super Bowl contender before. Think, the Eagles in 2017. There’s a confidence, swagger, looseness in practice and Burrow-led focus that’s impossible to ignore. He (alongside Chase) hasn’t lost a playoff game in college or the pros (7-0). It’d be silly to bet this is the game he suddenly flops when it matters most.
Sometimes there are straight-up unexplainable things that happen in football. We’ve been looking at one for more than a month now. Not just on the field, either — the nation has seemed to embrace the underdog Bengals story, which, if we’re being honest, has been scripted exactly as Hollywood might pen a similar blockbuster.
That movie, like this game, should end in a Bengals triumph. Shoving aside rankings and such, this is a very, very winnable game before considering the higher plane of quarterbacking Burrow has hit recently despite his line issues and his uncanny performance in the most important, high-pressure games of his life.
Look for the Bengals to follow a similar trajectory, falling behind, absorbing what unfolds and countering. Evan McPherson seals it, bringing a Lombardi back to the Queen City.
Prediction: Bengals 27, Rams 24
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