Film study: How shorthanded Packers could hand Cardinals their first loss

Touchdown Wire’s Laurie Fitzpatrick breaks down three key areas of tonight’s Packers-Cardinals showdown.

“Thursday Night Football” has offered underwhelming matchups too often in recent years.

Not this week.

Two of the NFC’s top teams square off tonight in the desert as the Green Bay Packers visit the Arizona Cardinals at 8:20 p.m. EDT on Fox and NFL Network at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The Packers (6-1), riding a six-game winning streak, sit comfortably atop the NFC North by 2½ games. The Cardinals (7-0) are the last undefeated team in the NFL this season.

Green Bay will be without two key offensive weapons in wide receivers Davante Adams and Allen Lazard, both of whom are on the COVID-19 reserve list. Arizona boasts a powerful offense with quarterback Kyler Murray that ranks fourth in the NFL in points per game and fifth in rushing yards per game, but on defense they will be without injured star J.J. Watt.

The Cardinals are a 6½-point favorite, according to Tipico Sportsbook.

Although the Packers will miss Adams and Lazard, the Cardinals haven’t opposed a quarterback of Aaron Rodgers’ caliber yet this season. This game will be a good measuring stick for both teams, and we should learn a lot based on what transpires.

Here are three areas that could decide the outcome of tonight’s game.

Offensive priority for Packers

Running the ball will be the most important aspect of the game for the Packers offense. It will be important to control the clock early and keep the ball out of Murray’s hands. Time of possession will be a point of emphasis, so expect a reasonably heavy dose of running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.

This is a logical strategy for the Packers because run defense is a relative weakness for the Cardinals. Arizona allows 5.0 yards per carry, which ranks 31st in the league this season.

In Week 3 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Cardinals allowed an eight-play, 75-yard touchdown drive consisting exclusively of runs. In total, the Cards gave up 159 rushing yards against Jacksonville, and that output came a week after they allowed 177 rushing yards against the Minnesota Vikings.

The Packers should feed Jones with handoffs up the middle, pitches outside, and even receptions out of the backfield.

Importantly, if the Packers establish the run, it will open up the second level of the defense for Rodgers to exploit with play-action.

Who steps up in place of Davante Adams and Allen Lazard?

Rodgers’ favorite target, without a doubt, is Adams. The All-Pro wideout ranks second in the NFL this season with 52 receptions and third with 744 receiving yards. That said, the Packers actually are 6-0 under coach Matt LaFleur when they’ve had to play without Adams.

That’s not to say Green Bay is a better team without him, but the Packers have learned how to feature other offensive weapons.

Rodgers will have Randall Cobb, Amari Rodgers, and possibly speedster Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who hasn’t seen the field since Week 3 because of a hamstring injury.

In the clip below, Valdes-Scanting attacks the deep third with a speed release from the slot.

The Packers will have to rely on depth this week, and if Valdes-Scantling can play, he could be a huge threat from the slot against zone coverages by using his speed to put high pressure on the safeties.

In the clip below, the Cardinals brought pressure with six rushers as they dropped back in zone coverage, leaving the middle of the field wide open. Expect Aaron Rodgers to exploit that look if he sees it tonight.

As tempting as it might be for LaFleur to turn Rodgers loose, Green Bay would be wise to control the game with the run and take what the Cardinals give Rodgers underneath. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Jones and Dillon get a majority of the touches.

A challenge for Packers defense

The Cardinals love to use misdirection behind the line of scrimmage and generate yards after the catch. The key for the Packers defense will be keeping the offense in front of them, group tackling, and sticking with assignments downfield.

In Week 5 against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Packers defense didn’t bring much pressure and instead focused on preventing big plays. Unfortunately, in the clip below, the cornerbacks weren’t able to stay on their assignments when the play was extended.

The Packers can’t allow mishaps such as that tonight against the Cardinals — or else DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz will have a field day.

Complicating matters for the Packers will be the absence of defensive coordinator Joe Barry, who will miss the game because of COVID-19 protocols.

Conclusion

There are appealing matchups for both offenses in this game, so expect these teams to come out on fire after the coin toss.

The Packers must control the game on the ground early in order to allow time for the passing game to develop. Even if the Packers play perfectly on offense, the Cardinals possess an embarrassment of riches on offense that will test the Green Bay defense.

The Packers can take comfort in the fact that Rodgers has won each of his past nine games in prime time, but it likely will take everything in Rodgers’ arsenal to win this week.