The Oregon Ducks (4-2) squares off with the No. 12 Iowa State Cyclones (8-3) Saturday in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Oregon-Iowa State college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Rankings courtesy of the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Oregon vs. Iowa State: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:44 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Oregon +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Iowa State -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Oregon +6 (-115) | Iowa State -6 (-105)
- Over/Under: 58.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Oregon vs. Iowa State: Three things to know
- The Ducks were plugged into the Pac-12 Conference title game after Washington dropped out due to COVID-19 concerns. Oregon made the most out of the fill-in situation by beating USC 31-24 to earn an automatic berth to a New Year’s Six bowl game. The Ducks closed their regular season with 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U records.
- Iowa State was invited to the Fiesta Bowl despite losing its season opener to a non-Power 5 program in Louisiana, but ISU did set a program record with eight conference wins. Besides that opening-game blunder, the Cyclones’ only losses were at a then-No. 6 Oklahoma State and then-No. 10 Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. Iowa State ended its regular season with 6-5 ATS and 4-7 O/U records.
- The Cyclones are making program history by playing in their first New Year’s Six bowl game and fourth consecutive bowl game under fifth-year head coach Matt Campbell. Iowa State is 1-2 in bowl games under Campbell. Oregon is a little more familiar with this stage since the Ducks won last year’s Rose Bowl as the 2019 Pac-12 champion, and are 2-0 in bowl games since head coach Mario Cristobal took over the program.
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Oregon vs. Iowa State: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Iowa State 34, Oregon 21
Money line (ML)
PASS. I’m on Iowa State to win this game and the only way I’d play the Cyclones’ money line would be in a parlay because -225 is too steep of a price for a straight-up Iowa State victory.
Against the spread (ATS)
This is more of a half-baked theory than a tried-and-trued approach to bowl game betting, but I am looking for the team that’s happier to be where they are. It feels like the teams that give the best effort for these bowl games are upstart or less prestigious football programs, which are grinding for the respect and legitimacy that comes with winning nationally televised bowl games.
Iowa State should be one of these programs. For the Cyclones, this is a culmination of years of hard work and 2020 Big 12 Coach of the Year Campbell gets to show why his name continuously comes up when talking about head coaching vacancies at big football programs.
Iowa State also has both the Big 12 Offensive and Defensive players of the Year in RB Breece Hall, who led the country with 1,436 rushing yards, and LB Mike Rose, who led the Big 12 in tackles and had four interceptions this season.
BET IOWA STATE -6 (-105) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
I am not usually a trends bettor, but I found a few Iowa State trends that causes me to lean UNDER 58.5 (-110) for a half-unit. The Under has cashed in nine of Iowa State’s previous 10 neutral-site games, including all three of its bowl games under Campbell. Also, since 2018, the Cyclones are 12-16-3 O/U when favored.
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