Fantasy football: Where to draft Baltimore Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins

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Baltimore Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins has been active at training camp, taking part in full drills as he makes his way back from a series of knee injuries which have hampered him across the past 2 seasons.

Dobbins had a very good rookie season in 2020, registering 805 yards on the ground with 9 TDs in 15 games in the COVID season, good for an average of 6.0 yards per carry. In addition, he didn’t lose a fumble that season, and he hasn’t lost the ball in 23 NFL games played.

The Ravens moved to add RB Melvin Gordon III to their stable of backs, joining holdovers Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. The latter are experienced in the Baltimore system, but if Dobbins is healthy, he is expected to be the bellcow. His fantasy outlook appears bright if he can avoid the injuries.

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J.K. Dobbins’ ADP: 56.04

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)

Dobbins as an ADP of 56.04 in redraft leagues, which means that he is starting to go off of draft boards in late Round 4, or most likely in Round 5, depending upon the amount of teams in a fantasy league. His ADP is likely to hold steady, unless he suffers some sort of a setback in training camp or the remaining preseason games.

It doesn’t appear any challengers will step up and cut into his workload, if Dobbins is 100 percent healthy. However, one has to wonder if Gordon could be the biggest threat, if he is able to regain his previous form, and can figure out how to hang onto the football.

Among running backs, Dobbins’ ADP is 18th, a little behind Seattle Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III (45.55) and New York Jets RB Breece Hall (46.17), while coming in just ahead of Minnesota Vikings RB Alexander Mattison (59.39) and Carolina Panthers RB Miles Sanders (57.69).

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J.K. Dobbins’ 2022 stats

Games: 8

Carries | rushing yards: 92 | 520

Rushing touchdowns: 2

Receptions | receiving yards: 7 | 42

Receiving touchdowns: 1

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Where should you draft Dobbins?

Buyer beware with Dobbins. He has a high ceiling, as he has averaged 5.9 yards per carry in his 23 NFL games across 2 NFL seasons. However, he missed the entire 2021 campaign, and a total of 25 total games over the previous 2 seasons due to assorted knee issues.

While I do not believe Gordon will push him too hard, as he is more of an insurance piece, who is still learning the Baltimore system, Dobbins isn’t much of a pass catcher out of the backfield. In standard fantasy leagues he is a fine low-end RB2 option with some upside, and a tremendous ‘flex’ option if you have plenty of depth on hand. If you were to rely upon Dobbins as an RB1 for some reason, you would really be rolling the dice.

The hope is that Dobbins can get back to 100 percent health. He was a budding star back in 2020, finding the end zone 9 times. The Baltimore offense figures to be a lot more potent, as QB Lamar Jackson has a wide array of options in the pass game, from TE Mark Andrews, to up-and-comer WR Rashod Bateman and veteran newcomer WR Odell Beckham Jr., among others. The vertical game should open things up for the run game, making Dobbins an intriguing option.

In PPR leagues, late Round 5, or into Round 6, is the area where Dobbins should go off the board. He just isn’t a great threat in the pass game. But as Round 4 winds down in standard leagues, he is worth nabbing as a low-end RB2 or flex option with plenty of upside. He could push for double-digit rushing TDs, or he could be a complete bust. The range of possibilities is rather wide due to his health history and the personnel around him.

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