Fantasy Football Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 16

Three key lessons to learn from a wild 2020 season.

Believe it or not, we’re down to championship week in the majority of fantasy leagues.

The uncharted road has been rocky and uncertain, and there has been ongoing doubt on whether we would ever reach this point. But still here we are, ready to determine league champions in the usual fashion in the most unusual of seasons.

Many, understandably, are ready to move on and forget anything and everything from Fantasy 2020, but there were lessons to be learned and others that were reaffirmed this season, and they’re worth a review before we completely turn our sights toward the offseason and 2021 draft prep.

Here are three lessons to take from Fantasy 2020, starting with …

Patience, please, with rookies, particularly the running backs

Remember back at midseason when the likes of Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, D’Andre Swift and J.K. Dobbins were fantasy non-factors?

Many of these mid-round rookie running back draft picks were relegated to the ends of benches or could even be found on the waiver wire after their original fantasy teams simply gave up on them.

And, looking back at some of the numbers, it’s easy to see why:

  • Over the season’s first 10 weeks, Taylor was fantasy’s 28th-ranked running back with an average of only 12.1 (point-per-reception) fantasy points per game. And, at the time (heading into Week 11), he was coming off a three-game span in which he produced a grand total of 102 total yards and one touchdown on 30 total touches.
  • Through Week 11, Akers’ season-long stat line (in eight games) consisted of 50 rushes for 201 yards, three receptions for 27 yards and one total TD. That was a grand total of 31.8 PPR points.
  • In the season’s first eight weeks, Swift had only two games with 15 or more fantasy points and had received 11 or more touches in a game only twice.
  • In the Baltimore Ravens’ first six games leading into their Week 7 bye, Dobbins was third among the team’s running backs with only 36 total touches, including 25 rushing attempts, and had totaled 228 yards and two TDs — good for 45.8 fantasy points.

Patience proved to be the key, however, as each of the four has become a fantasy factor in the season’s second half.

Let’s go again to the numbers …

  • Since Week 11, Taylor has been fantasy’s third-best running back, with only David Montgomery (26.5) and Derrick Henry (25.6) averaging more fantasy points than Taylor’s 22.0 per outing. The Indy rookie has rushed for 414 yards (sixth among RBs) and three TDs over that span and has added another 95 yards and a TD on 13 receptions.
  • After producing the aforementioned 201 yards and one TD on 50 carries in his first eight games, Akers has rushed for 390 yards and two scores on 74 attempts in four contests since. Only Dalvin Cook (96) and Henry (92) have logged more rushing attempts than Akers during that span.
  • In his three most recent games, Swift has had 11 or more touches and at least 15 fantasy points in each, including two of his three best games (25.9 points in Week 10 and 24.2 Sunday). He’s found the end zone in all three games for a total of four TDs in that span.
  • Since the Ravens’ Week 7 bye, Dobbins has paced the team with 92 touches and trails only QB Lamar Jackson with 460 yards from scrimmage, including 414 rushing, while scoring four TDs — one in each of the last four games he’s played in.

In season-long fantasy league, knowing when to hold ’em and when to fold ’em is an integral part of a winning strategy, but not all of the commodities carry equal weight.

Some rookies, like the Jaguars’ James Robinson, shine from the start. Most, though, require fantasy patience, especially at running back, where productive — and potentially productive — players are at a high premium, and young legs are inherently primed to thrive late in a season when it matters most.

Remember that and think twice next season when you’re tempted to send that highly touted but under-performing fourth-round rookie back packing at Halloween.

Hot and cold late-season QBs swing fantasy fortunes

Timing is everything in season-long fantasy leagues.

A scorching starter in the season’s first 13 weeks can flame out overnight come fantasy playoff time.

A pre-Thanksgiving pedestrian fantasy producer suddenly can erupt on a late-season tear and earn unexpected league-winner distinction.

That’s especially true at quarterback, fantasy’s highest-scoring position.

Following are two lists.

The first runs down fantasy’s top-12 quarterbacks from Weeks 1-11 (minimum six starts), their average fantasy points per start, and then how they’ve fared since — i.e. their respective ranking and fantasy-point average over the last month (Weeks 12-15, minimum two starts):

  1. Kyler Murray, 30.4 (12th, 21.5)
  2. Russell Wilson, 28.4 (23rd, 17.9)
  3. Josh Allen, 26.5 (third, 27.4)
  4. Patrick Mahomes, 26.4 (fourth, 26.3)
  5. Justin Herbert, 25.9 (20th, 18.1)
  6. Aaron Rodgers, 24.6 (eighth, 24.6)
  7. Deshaun Watson, 23.4 (seventh, 24.6)
  8. Tom Brady, 21.5 (11th, 21.9)
  9. Lamar Jackson, 21.5 (first, 31.3)
  10. Carson Wentz, 21.1 (32nd, 12.9)
  11. Gardner Minshew, 21.0 (NR, one start)
  12. Ryan Tannehill, 20.9 (sixth, 25.6)

Now, here’s the inverse: the top 12 fantasy QBs from the last four weeks (min. two starts) and their respective rankings, averages from the first 11 weeks

  1. Jackson, 31.3 (ninth, 21.5)
  2. Jalen Hurts, 29.6 (NR, no starts)
  3. Allen, 27.4 (third, 26.5)
  4. Mahomes, 26.3 (fourth, 26.4)
  5. Baker Mayfield, 25.7 (29th, 14.2)
  6. Tannehill, 25.6 (12th, 20.9)
  7. Watson, 24.6 (seventh, 23.4)
  8. Rodgers, 24.6 (sixth, 24.6)
  9. Kirk Cousins, 23.5 (21st, 19.0)
  10. Tua Tagovailoa, 21.9 (NR, 12.8 in 4 starts)
  11. Brady, 21.6 (eighth, 21.5)
  12. Murray, 21.5 (first, 30.4)

First, a nod to the consistency and reliability of Allen, Mahomes, Watson, Rodgers and Brady, who have continued to produce at a near-steady weekly QB1 level throughout the season.

On the flip side, though, reside the likes of Hurts, Mayfield, Cousins and Tagovailoa who have blossomed as weekly late-season QB starters after being fantasy non-factors and Wilson, Herbert and Wentz who have gone in the opposite direction.

Wentz, of course, was benched in favor of the rookie Hurts in Week 14, and all the latter has done is put up 21.3 and 37.8 points in his first two pro starts while rushing for 169 yards and accounting for five total TDs. Up next for the Philly freshman is a Week 16 date with the Cowboys, the eighth-most favorable matchup for fantasy QBs.

Jackson, meanwhile, is finally performing as the elite QB he was drafted to be (neck-and-neck with Mahomes this past summer as the top quarterback coming off the board) with at least 27.7 points in each of his three games since sitting out Week 12 due to a positive COVID-19 test.

And can it really be that Wilson, fantasy’s No. 2 QB over the first 11 weeks, is producing at a low-QB2 level while failing to score more than 19.02 fantasy points in three of the last four weeks?

We’d write it off as an aberration, but then again we saw almost the exact same pattern a year ago at this time when Wilson averaged the 27th-most points (15.5) at the position from Weeks 13-16 in a season in which he started hot and still finished with the fourth-most fantasy points at the position.

Matchups can certainly matter in the fantasy postseason

Here in this space three weeks ago, we ran through the easiest and toughest fantasy playoff schedules (Weeks 14-16), according to The Huddle’s handy Fantasy Strength of Schedule tool.

Using the same tool and adjusting the range of weeks, here are of some of the notable quarterback and running back Weeks 13-15 fantasy projections looking forward from Week 12. We’re focusing on the QBs and RBs as they seem to be the positions most affected by defensive matchups.

The Titans, Ravens and Vikings were all projected to have top-10 most favorable fantasy QB schedules over the last three weeks, so maybe the recent surges for Ryan Tannehill (fourth at the position in average fantasy points during that span), Jackson (first) and Cousins (10th) shouldn’t be all that surprising.

Tannehill is enjoying a late-year boom for the second straight season and is tied with Allen with a position-most 10 total TDs (eight passing, two rushing) over the last three weeks. He’s averaged 27.7 fantasy points (fourth among QBs) during that span and has taken full advantage of matchups against the Browns, Jaguars, three of seven defenses surrendering the most points to fantasy QBs.

There seems to be even more projection-to-performance correlation at running back as the SOS forecast pinpointed the Colts, Bears and Titans as having the top three most favorable Week 13-15 fantasy RB slates.

And your No. 1, 2 and 4 fantasy backs over that span? The Bears’ David Montgomery, the Colts’ Taylor and the Titans’ Henry, respectively.

Montgomery has totaled a position-most 80.8 PPR points, including five TDs, over the last three weeks after compiling 137.7 points and three TDs over the Bears’ first 11 games. But facing the Lions (most points allowed to fantasy RBs), Texans (second-most points allowed) and Vikings (17th-most points surrendered) in back-to-back-to-back weeks outings has vaulted the formerly pedestrian Montgomery into league-winning territory.

Now, certainly, matchups are not the end-all, be-all. And they usually don’t matter too much for locked-in fantasy studs or players suddenly receiving a high-volume of work at a low-volume position.

The Texans’ Watson, for instance, just got done feasting (1,034 yards of total offense, 65.4 fantasy points) on what was supposed to be the league’s third-most unfavorable Weeks 13-15 fantasy QB slate, while the league’s third-most unfavorable fantasy tight end itinerary similarly didn’t exactly hinder Washington TE Logan Thomas, who’s caught 28-of-31 targets over the last three weeks and averaged 19.4 fantasy points per outing.

But heed the Montgomery example above and definitely use matchups as one of the top tiebreakers when deciding between two-or-more similar players to fill the last spot in your starting postseason lineup or when evaluating a seemingly dead-even, do-I-do-it-or-do-I-decline midseason trade proposal.