Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 11
Tracking my predictions: 4-5-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury
Just when I was getting ahead of the curve with my recommendations, a three-week cold snap has this column trending on the wrong direction. It has been far more difficult of late to find players I’m really excited to recommend as a worthy gamble, but that’s how fantasy goes in the heart of bye weeks.
It also would help if I didn’t reach as far as I have on a few players … most recently, Cleveland Browns WR Rashard Higgins had the makings of a sly fantasy play, but when a quarterback throws 20 times in a game, it’s tough to expect much from the receiving targets, especially fringe ones in a game that began with a 35-minute weather delay.
Washington Football Team TE Logan Thomas vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Thomas has at least four targets in each game this season, and quarterback Alex Smith has gone his way six times apiece in the last two weeks. Thomas has mustered double-digit PPR points in three of his last four outings, even through a two-game scoreless streak.
There’s appeal here due to the Washington passing game really boiling down to Terry McLaurin and third-down back J.D. McKissic. Washington has been forced to throw quite a bit lately, particularly in Week 10.
In the past five weeks, this Bengals unit ranks 113.1 percent easier to exploit than the league average allowed to tight ends in PPR scoring. Prior to last week, when Cincinnati returned from its bye week to face the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Eric Ebron, this unit had been awful vs. the position. Tight ends had found the end zone six times in four contests and had firmly entrenched the Bengals among the worst defenses of the position. In that game, Pittsburgh wide receivers attacked with efficiency and great efficacy against the Bengals, rendering useless the need for Ebron to be a major contributor.
The gamble here is whether Thomas finds his way into the end zone. The volume is not likely to be great, and gamers who are in a rough spot should be focused on him as a possible replacement for guys like George Kittle and Zach Ertz. Several other tight ends have fallen on tough times of late and could be benched in a brazen roll of the dice.
My projection: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 1 TD (14.5 PPR points)