Fantasy football draft: Who to take with the No. 1 overall pick

Analyzing 2021 fantasy football average draft positions and looking at which player you should take with the No. 1 overall pick.

So you have the No. 1 pick in your upcoming fantasy football draft. Is it as clear as most of the preseason player rankings make it appear (Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey) or is there a darkhorse candidate who should be getting serious consideration? Below, we look at the top candidates for the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy football drafts and who should be selected.

No. 1 overall fantasy football draft pick candidates

(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com)

Going by re-draft league ADP, which includes both standard and point-per-reception scoring formats, as of Monday, Aug. 16, here are your top five along with their notable 2020 statistics:

  1. McCaffrey (average pick 1.35): 59 carries, 225 yards, 17 receptions, 149 yards, 6 total touchdowns | 73.4/90.4 (PPR) total fantasy points (three games)
  2. Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook (2.94): 312 carries, 1,557 yards, 44 receptions, 361 yards, 17 total TDs | 293.8/337.8 total fantasy points (14 games)
  3. New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara (4.34): 187 carries, 932 yards, 83 receptions, 756 yards, 21 total TDs | 294.8/377.8 total fantasy points (15 games)
  4. Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry (5.47): 378 carries, 2,027 yards, 19 receptions, 114 yards, 17 total TDs | 314.1/333.1 total fantasy points
  5. Green Bay Packers WR Davante Adams (9.12): 149 targets, 115 receptions-1,374 yards, 18 total TDs | 243.4/358.4 total fantasy points (14 games)

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Who should you select first overall in your fantasy football draft?

Henry, with 314.1 total fantasy points, was the non-quarterback leader in standard-scoring formats in 2020 while Kamara (377.8) topped the non-QB charts in PPR scoring.

However, it was McCaffrey who came out on top in both scoring formats in terms of average fantasy points per game (24.5 standard, 30.1 PPR) when he wasn’t sidelined by ankle and shoulder injuries.

In 2019, when he played a full 16 games, Run CMC came through with a fantasy season for the ages, totaling 353.2 standard-scoring and 469.2 PPR points to dominate both formats. In 2018, also playing a full 16 games, McCaffrey finished third among non-QBs in total standard fantasy points (274.5) and a close second in PPR points (381.5).

Now McCaffrey’s back at full health, still very much in his prime — having just turned 25 in June — and is ready to rack up fantasy points in an RB-centric offense as one of the league’s true three-down backs.

Of course, there are naturally re-injury question marks after McCaffrey played in fewer than 20% of the Panthers’ games last season, but each of the other leading No. 1 pick candidates all have more readily visible concerns and flaws:

  •  Cook missed at least two games in each of his first four seasons and a total of 21 during that span.
  • QB Drew Brees is no longer leading the Saints and peppering Kamara with dump-off passes; the running back has never had more than 194 carries or 932 rushing yards in a season and he is bound to regress from his league-leading 21 touchdowns.

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  • Henry, while a clear freak in a league of physical freaks, will turn 28 before the season is over and the wear-and-tear of a whopping 867 total touches (including playoffs) over the last two seasons could very well start showing.
  • The wideout Adams, of course, plays at a much deeper position with less relative fantasy value, and the career-best numbers he compiled in QB Aaron Rodgers’ surprise MVP season a year ago will be tough to duplicate.

That leaves McCaffrey as the clear No. 1 overall choice, particularly in PPR leagues.

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