The 2020 season was one to forget for the Dallas Cowboys, and that includes stud RB Ezekiel Elliott, who failed to reach 1,000 rushing yards and 180 fantasy points (in non-PPR leagues) for only the second time in his five pro seasons. Below, we look at Elliott’s 2021 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should target him.
Last summer Elliott had an offseason bout with COVID-19 and things didn’t get any better during the season itself as injuries exacted a heavy toll on his surrounding cast, including QB Dak Prescott and the offensive line.
The injury bug also hit Elliott as he battled a late-season calf injury that forced him to sit out Week 15. He finished with an average of 65.3 rushing yards per game and eight total touchdowns – the lowest marks of his career – while tying a career-high with six fumbles.
Now, the 2021 theme is “bounce back” in Big D as Prescott returns, the Cowboys look to shake off a 6-10 finish and Elliott looks to regain his place among the top-10 fantasy backs — a distinction he held in each of his first four seasons.
Elliott’s ADP: 11th overall
(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com)
Early fantasy drafters are generally expecting a return to form for Elliott as he’s the 11th overall player, on average, coming off the board as a late first-round selection.
That places him seventh among running backs, trailing only Christian McCaffrey (Carolina Panthers), Dalvin Cook (Minnesota Vikings), Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints), Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans), Saquon Barkley (New York Giants) and Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis Colts).
TE Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) along with QBs Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) and Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals) are the non-RBs in the ADP top 10.
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Elliott’s 2020 stats
Rushing: 244 carries, 979 yards
Receiving: 71 targets, 52 receptions, 338 yards
Touchdowns: 8 (6 rushing, 2 receiving)
Fumbles: 6
Fantasy points: 179.7 (standard)/231.7 (point per reception)
Where should you take Elliott in your fantasy football draft?
Recency bias is a powerful fantasy football force, and Elliott’s sluggish finish to the 2020 season – he had only 2 TDs and three double-digit fantasy point games among his final 10 contests – has left more than a few with a sour taste.
Sure, Zeke isn’t the automatic top-three pick he was a couple of seasons ago, but he’ll be only 26 when the season kicks off and the ingredients for a modest rebound are there.
The return of Prescott is the key factor to keep in mind here as Elliott averaged a more-than-healthy 17.9 (standard)/22.7 (PPR) fantasy points over the first five games before the quarterback’s season-ending leg injury while the Cowboys scored an average of 32.4 points per outing during that span.
So when it comes to late in the first round on fantasy draft day and McCaffrey, Henry, Cook, Barkley and Kamara are off the board, along with a wide receiver or two and perhaps Kelce, it will be prime time to give Elliott and his bounce-back potential some serious consideration.
Definitely don’t let him fall past the middle of the second round.
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