Every fantasy roster manager should be targeting a “sleeper” team defense in drafts.
Why? Because of the wild, year-to-year volatility of the position.
A quick run through the last five years of average draft position (ADP) data and the year-end top fantasy defenses from those corresponding seasons reveals the following:
- The top five team defenses in terms of ADP in each of these five seasons (2016-20) finished with an average final ranking of 13.5 among the highest-scoring units for that year.
- Conversely, the top five team defenses, in terms of total fantasy points (The Huddle Performance scoring), began those respective seasons with an average ADP of 14.8.
- Only three team defenses from my five-year study — the 2016 Arizona Cardinals, the 2018 Los Angeles Rams and last season’s Pittsburgh Steelers — began the season among the ADP top five and finished the season ranked among the top five fantasy defenses.
This season doesn’t figure to be an exception. So avoid the temptation to use that 11th-round pick on your top-ranked fantasy D and instead use it on bolstering your running back or wide receiver depth.
Here are three sleeper team defenses for 2021 to target in the next-to-last round of your draft (if your league drafts kickers). The only condition is that these three units fall outside the current top 10 in ADP.
Fantasy draft team defense sleepers
(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com)
Denver Broncos
Current defense ADP: 12 (164.53)
2020 key stats: 42 sacks, 6 fumble recoveries, 10 interceptions, 0 return touchdowns
Sleeper résumé: Pass-rusher supreme Von Miller is back after missing 2020 due to injury and pairs with Bradley Chubb. The cornerback room, meanwhile, has undergone an extreme makeover via free agency and the draft, giving Denver one of the league’s best secondaries. Some big-time positive regression is due for head coach Vic Fangio’s defense.
WIN YOUR FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUE!
For 25 years, TheHuddle.com has been helping fantasy players just like you win. This year, it’s your turn! Custom player rankings, tools and more to give you the edge over your competition.
Use code SBW21 to take 20% OFF a new subscription. Join now!
Miami Dolphins
Current defense ADP: 13 (165.15)
2020 key stats: 41 sacks, 11 fumble recoveries, 18 interceptions, 2 return touchdowns
Sleeper résumé: Courtesy of a league-high 29 takeaways, including 10 interceptions by CB Xavien Howard, the Dolphins finished third among fantasy defenses in 2020 with 121 total points. Yet, they somehow own the 13th-highest defensive ADP entering 2021.
Count on the takeaway total to dip, but bumps in the Fins’ sack (41) and return TD (2) totals could keep them squarely among the top-10 fantasy defenses.
Arizona Cardinals
Current defense ADP: 19 (178.61)
2020 key stats: 48 sacks, 10 fumble recoveries, 11 interceptions, 0 return touchdowns
Sleeper résumé: Free-agent addition J.J. Watt isn’t the back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year Watt of six seasons ago, but he’s a fine pairing with Chandler Jones, who had a career-high 19 sacks in 2019 but was limited to one in five games a season ago due to injury.
Expect more takeaways (21 in 2020) and a few return scores (none) after a down season in those departments last year.
Play our new free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Follow @kenpomp on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1369]