It is said that you can’t necessarily win your fantasy football league title on the basis of your first-round draft pick, but you can certainly set yourself up for a disappointing season with the wrong opening-round selection.
With that in mind, we’re singling out players for 12-team leagues and explaining why they’re three first-round picks to avoid in fantasy football.
Three first-round picks to bypass
(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com)
Green Bay Packers WR Davante Adams
Current ADP: 6 (average pick of 8.83)
2020 statistics (14 games): 149 targets, 115 receptions, 1,374 yards, 18 touchdowns
2020 fantasy points: 243.4 standard scoring (first among wide receivers), 358.4 point-per-reception scoring (first)
Why to shy away: There’s a bit of an asterisk here: We do like Adams as a first-round pick, just not at No. 6 overall with elite players at positions of much more scarcity (Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce and RBs Saquon Barkley (New York Giants) and Aaron Jones (Green Bay Packers)) still on the board.
Adams had a career/historical year in 2020 in terms of receptions, TDs and fantasy points as he became the fifth player in NFL history with at least 18 scoring grabs in a season; however, the issue with historical seasons is they’re typically by their very definition a once-in-career occurrence.
Aside from Sterling Sharpe, whose career ended due to a neck injury suffered late in his 18-TD-catch season of 1994, the three other wideouts (Randy Moss in 2007, Jerry Rice in 1987 and Mark Clayton in 1984) who’ve had at least 18 scoring receptions in a season all saw their TD and standard fantasy point totals decrease markedly the next season (by at least 12 TDs and 51 fantasy points).
None of those three missed a game to injury in those ensuing seasons, and it’s highly likely Adams will follow suit in 2021, making him more of a late-first/early-second round value.
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Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb
Current ADP: 11 (12.42 average pick)
2020 statistics (12 games): 190 carries, 1,067 yards, 16 receptions, 150 yards, 12 total TDs
2020 fantasy points: 191.7 standard (9th), 207.7 PPR (11th)
Why to shy away: Running backs are the most valuable first-round commodities, but not backs in near-equal timeshares. Chubb’s Browns teammate and former NFL rushing leader Kareem Hunt finished just one spot behind Chubb among the 2020 standard-scoring fantasy points leaders and one spot ahead in the PPR ranks.
In other words, this is the point in the first round to jump off the RB train and go with the elite wide receiver or tight end.
Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor
Current ADP: 12 (13.17 average pick)
2020 statistics (15 games): 232 rushes, 1,169 yards, 36 receptions, 299 yards, 12 total TDs
2020 fantasy points: 216.8 standard (4th), 252.8 PPR (6th)
Why to shy away: Taylor is entering his second season, and it’s not even accurate to call him a one-year wonder as roughly 55% of his fantasy production came in his final five games of 2020, largely playing against sub-par defenses.
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