Explaining why Emoni Bates could have a massive slide in the 2023 NBA Draft

Emoni Bates was long considered one of the top basketball prospects in the world, but his outlook in the 2023 NBA Draft doesn’t look great.

When he was just 15 years old, 24/7 Sports speculated that he was perhaps “the best high school prospect” since LeBron James. The following year, Bates became the first high school sophomore to ever win the boys’ Gatorade National Player of the Year award.

For his junior year, Bates transferred to a prep school created by his father. He then opted to forego his senior year of high school to play at Memphis, where he became the youngest player in college basketball for the 2021-22 season.

After struggling on the court and suffering a back injury, Bates transferred to Eastern Michigan. Bates was soon suspended after he was arrested during the offseason. He was charged with two felonies, including carrying a concealed weapon, but the charges were later dropped. He was sentenced to 18 months of probation following a misdemeanor gun charge.

Here is what one NBA scout recently told Seth Davis (via The Athletic):

“He’s not even on our board. Just too much of a circus. He has a scorer’s mentality but bad shot selection. He’s one of those athletic-looking guys that’s not really athletic. He has no interest in playing defense or utilizing his other abilities. He needs to learn how to play with other good players.”

Once on the court for Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, Bates strung together a few dominant performances. But there are still various factors, including his underwhelming physical measurements, working against him.

Bates recently measured at 6-foot-8.25 inches in socks and weighed 179.2 pounds at the 2023 NBA Draft Combine. Among all players who have measured at the NBA Draft Combine since 2000, per Stadium Speak, none taller than 6-foot-5 but less than 180 pounds heard their name called in the NBA Draft.

Meanwhile, per Stadium Speak, his wingspan relative to height (1.01) ranks in the 3rd percentile among all players who have measured at the NBA Draft Combine since 2000.

As such, it is no surprise that his defensive metrics are particularly discouraging. Bates allowed 0.88 points per defensive chance, per Stats Perform, which was the worst among all NBA prospects included in the latest aggregate mock draft provided by HoopsHype.

According to Bart Torvik, there are only two players on record ever drafted listed at his height or taller with a block percentage and steal percentage both lower than 2 percent. Bates fails to meet either threshold.

Last season, per Stats Perform, he allowed a whopping 1.14 points per pick when defending the screener in pick-and-roll actions. That was the worst among top prospects with at least 40 opportunities tracked.

Bates averaged 19.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game last season and ultimately, some teams may find his blend of height and shooting enticing. But he was just 21-for-64 (32.8 percent) on uncontested jumpers, per Stats Perform, which was near the worst among top prospects.

He was also just 59-for-155 (38.0 percent) when taking his catch-and-shoot jumpers, which ranked near the worst among top prospects as well.

Overall, the advanced metrics do not suggest a good forecast. Bates (-0.4) graded very poorly for the catch-all metric box plus-minus during his time at Memphis and Eastern Michigan.

In fact, per Bart Torvik, there are only five players on record since 2008 to hear their name called on draft night after posting a negative box-plus minus during their collegiate careers. Only one was selected in the first round and only two were selected in the top 40.

We projected Bates at No. 49 overall in our latest NBA mock draft.

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