Despite it being the week of Thanksgiving, Sunday’s result didn’t leave Cowboys fans with a feeling of gratitude. The field became a quagmire in the midst of a nasty rainstorm, and it made life difficult for both quarterbacks and offenses. To this point in the season, the Dallas offense has been more reliant on Dak Prescott’s ability to make plays, and thus the weather better served the New England defense as it mitigated Prescott’s potential impact.
Games like Sunday’s contest demonstrate the importance of having every possible edge a team can find. Uncontrollable elements like the weather can level a matchup in unexpected ways, and thus its important to maximize the value of your own decision-making. In light of this loss, and perhaps with the rise of the Baltimore Ravens, Jason Garrett has come under scrutiny for the lack of usage of analytics in the team’s decision-making. Baltimore is the latest team to grab headlines for this usage, but New England has been at the forefront for the majority of their dynastic run and now Dallas will face another analytically-inclined franchise in the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo comes to town holding an 8-3 record, and the top Wild-Card spot in the AFC. Due to historic-level production, the New England and San Francisco defenses have garnered the attention of most headlines. But the Buffalo defense has played a significant role in their record to this point.
The truth, however, is that they’ve likely benefited from some weaker offenses.
Here we see the EPA per play that a defense has allowed (Y-axis) vs the EPA per play the offenses generated against other teams (X-axis).
The idea is to compare a team’s defensive production against their quality of competition.
And as you can see, Buffalo’s opponents have been quite abysmal overall. In fairness, Buffalo has performed well against those opponents. But its safe to say that their defense has been largely untested. The Dallas offense should theoretically give a better indication of what Buffalo’s defense is capable of achieving.
Because their opponents have been so appalling, it’s hard to glean what’s real from Buffalo’s defensive statistics. However, a player worth noting is cornerback Tre’Davious White and his lock-down potential.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, White has allowed a 47.9 passer rating on passes his way, ranked second among all cornerbacks. He’s a player who’s shown the capability of shadowing a team’s top wide receiver, so it should be interesting to see how Buffalo chooses to deploy him.
On the opposite side of the ball, it’s hard not to talk about the Buffalo Bills without talking about their young quarterback, Josh Allen. It seems fitting Allen comes to town in a week where analytics was featured as a prominent discussion point. Entering last year’s draft, Allen was the prototypical case in skills vs stats. From a physical standpoint, it’s hard not to be wowed by his talent, as he blends an unprecedented amount of arm strength and mobility. Despite this though, things never quite came together at Wyoming, and many wondered whether Allen’s physical tools would translate to success on the NFL field.
Allen put these physical tools on display immediately as a rookie, but we also saw his rawness play a role. That said, Allen’s development as a quarterback is rather impressive when you observe his Next-Gen passing charts from 2018 and 2019.
In his rookie campaign, it was clear how much Allen believed in his arm, as he routinely attacked downfield, and found great success attacking the seams. He did, however, struggle to attack the perimeter of the field. But in 2019, we see Allen utilizing the entire field, without really sacrificing much of his downfield shots. It’s almost downright laughable that Allen has the ability to uncork a pass to any point on this chart. As a defense, it means having to defend every level on a given play, and can prove costly if there’s a lapse in focus.
Arm strength of Allen’s caliber is certainly rare, but it’s the combination of strength and mobility that truly sets Allen apart. Common sense would dictate players should be keenly aware of their strengths, and stick to those as much as possible. This is certainly the case with Allen, as no quarterback has relied more heavily on his legs this year.
The chart above shows that about 12% of Allen’s successful plays have come due to his rushing ability, while about 9% of his dropbacks resulted in a scramble overall. While Allen has shown development as a passer, he still likes to use his legs, and can certainly do so if unaccounted for by the defense.
Buffalo’s schedule to this point may have inflated their overall record, but they’re still dangerous enough to cause trouble for a team, especially on a short week. Dallas will need to regroup quickly if they hope to avoid an unpleasant Thanksgiving. But with a holiday game, the eyes of America will be tuned in, and that presents a unique opportunity for Dak Prescott to vault forward in the MVP discussion.
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