Two years ago Tuesday, the Jets made a blockbuster trade with the Colts to move up from No. 6 to No. 3 in the 2018 NFL Draft. The intent was obvious: New York was putting itself in position to take one of the best quarterbacks on the board.
The Jets gave up three second-round picks to move up three spots. The result was Sam Darnold, a young, exciting quarterback with the potential to be the franchise’s long-awaited savior.
Two years later, it’s unfair to pass a final judgment on the Darnold trade just yet. He’s only played two seasons and has shown glimpses of greatness in just 26 games as a starter. However, there were serious regression problems with Adam Gase at the helm of the offense in 2019 that need to be corrected in Year 3 before this trade goes from promising risk to total flop.
Darnold’s rookie and sophomore seasons looked very similar. Both featured incredible performances, big wins and sensational throws followed by games with multiple mistakes, turnovers and losses. He didn’t look like a rookie bust in 2018, but definitely had room for improvement with the right coach.
Enter Gase, who many in the Jets organization believed could help elevate Darnold after a year working with offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates.
Reports of impressive practices poured out of One Jets Drive during the 2019 offseason. Gase seemed poised to reinvigorate Darnold after a lackluster rookie season and propel him into the stardom many saw in him at USC. None of that came to pass, though, after a poor showing in Week 1 vs. the Bills and the subsequent mononucleosis diagnosis that sidelined Darnold for a month. You can’t blame the mono on Gase, but Darnold’s first game of 2019 featured little excitement in a one-point loss.
The rest of 2019 featured incredible performances – like the 338-yard, two-touchdown win over the Cowboys and three-game winning streak in the middle of the season – but horrid stretches as well. Darnold’s five-turnover shutout loss to the Patriots followed by a three-interception loss to the Jaguars was especially bad. He looked confused at times throwing into coverages and his turnovers came at the worst moments on terrible passing attempts. He looked like a rookie in those moments, not someone worth four early-round draft picks.
Overall, he totaled 3,024 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 13 interceptions and a 7-6 record.
To properly evaluate the trade after two years, you need to look at three things: 1) what the picks for Darnold turned into, 2) who the Jets could have taken at No. 6 and 3) what the Jets did to set Darnold up for success.
The picks turned into offensive guard Quenton Nelson, offensive tackle Braden Smith, defensive end Kemoko Turay, running back Jordan Wilkins and cornerback Rock Ya-Sin. Outside of Nelson and Smith, the players aren’t great so the trade isn’t that uneven for Darnold. There’s no telling how poorly Mike Maccagnan and the Jets would have drafted with those other selections, though, so grabbing Darnold was actually a safer option given their lack of a true franchise quarterback.
It’s hard to ascertain who would have been available at No. 6 had the Jets not traded up, but let’s assume that the Colts still took Nelson at No. 3, Darnold was gone and New York still wanted a quarterback. They would have potentially been choosing between Josh Allen, Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson and would have likely picked Allen or Rosen. All in all, the trade doesn’t look terrible given Darnold has shown to be better than Allen at times and is definitely better than Rosen right now. We won’t dog the Jets for passing on Jackson since literally every other team did, including the Ravens who traded back into the first round to select him.
What makes the trade less ideal is what the Jets did for Darnold after taking him. The offensive line has been horrible since Darnold joined the Jets, the offensive weapons have also been bad minus Robby Anderson and Le’Veon Bell and the playcalling hasn’t put him in the best situations.
The trade was still a good move by the Jets to secure at worst the second-best quarterback in the draft. It took a lot, but there’s still time for Gase and Joe Douglas to turn the team around and give Darnold the opportunity to live up to his potential.