We’re down to just four teams in Euro 2020 and Italy meets Spain Tuesday in our first semifinal match for a 3 p.m. ET kickoff at Wembley Stadium in London, England. Below, we preview the Italy vs. Spain odds and lines and make our best Euro 2020 bets, picks and predictions.
Spain, the No. 6 nation in the FIFA World Rankings, defeated the Xherdan Shaqiri-led Switzerland in the quarterfinals despite failing to score while up a man for the final 33-plus minutes of regulation and stoppage time. Spain had 28 shots (10 on target) but just 1 goal.
With a bad penalty record, Spain managed to step up and top Switzerland 3-1 on penalties.
Italy topped Belgium 2-1 in the quarterfinals. Despite MF Eden Hazard being sidelined, Belgium looked almost at full strength. The top team in the world by the FIFA rankings, lost to seventh-ranked Italy. A penalty kick was the only goal Belgium got on the board.
Italy had two absolutely beautiful goals. It shook off its Round of 16 struggles and looked dominant to improve to 5-0-0 in the tournament.
Italy vs. Spain: Odds, picks and predictions
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:46 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Italy +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Spain +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Draw +220
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: +130 | U: -175)
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Prediction
Italy 1, Spain 1 (Italy advances in extra time)
Money line (ML)
BET on ITALY TO ADVANCE (-145) as the best value bet. While it’s a bit pricey, Spain is a classy side and may find a way to push this to penalty kicks.
Italy looked flawless despite one mistaken challenge against Belgium. After watching that and seeing the combination of lethal finishers with veteran defenders like 36-year-old Giorgio Chiellini, I wouldn’t bet against Italy.
Also, Italy’s defense is much stronger than Switzerland’s, so if Spain struggled to score against the Swiss, I can only imagine the difficulty they could be in for in the semifinals.
After giving up 2 goals in the final 15 minutes to Croatia and not capitalizing on the red card against Switzerland, betting on Spain in any form to win this game is a trap.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET on the UNDER 2.5 (-175) despite the steep price.
While Spain has two 5-goal games in the tournament, it scored 5, 1 and 0 goals in three matches against top-20 teams. In similar matches, Italy scored 3, 2 and 1 goals. I don’t think this will be a high-scoring match, especially with Italy’s defensive prowess.
However, Italy isn’t the only side with extremely experienced defenders. Spain has defending MF Sergio Busquets and D Jordi Alba both helping captain their roster.
Expect a low-scoring affair that may head into extra time. Thankfully, the total is only in effect for the regular time, and 1-1 feels like a very realistic 90-minute score.
Want some action in this one? Place a Euro 2020 bet with BetMGM today. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
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