In the second quarterfinal match of Euro 2020, Belgium will take on Italy Friday afternoon. Kickoff is slated for 3 p.m ET at Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany. Below, we preview the Belgium vs. Italy odds and lines and make our best Euro 2020 bets, picks and predictions.
Despite being more of the home side in this upcoming match, Belgium, who narrowly escaped Portugal in the Round of 16, will probably be without MF Kevin De Bruyne and winger Eden Hazard in the quarterfinals. The decision on whether they play is expected to be at the “last minute,” according to manager Roberto Martinez.
That will drastically change both the game plan for Belgium, which sits atop the FIFA World Rankings, and Italy, which ranks seventh.
Italy is coming off a hard-fought victory over Austria in the Round of 16, after winning its Group Stage games by a combined score of 7-0. With Turkey, Switzerland, Wales, and Austria as their first four opponents, this will be a massive test for the Italians, even if Belgium is forced to sit its two best talents.
Belgium vs. Italy: Odds, picks and predictions
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 9:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Belgium +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Italy +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Draw +210
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: +130 | U: -175)
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Prediction
Belgium 1, Italy 1 (Belgium wins in extra time)
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to BELGIUM TO ADVANCE (+110) but do it with hesitancy because of the injuries to the stars. If De Bruyne and Hazard are ruled out, MF Dries Mertens would have to step up.
The difference in skill is enough to pass on this money line in general. Given the odds for Belgium, I’d bet on it to advance, assuming it may get at least some time on the pitch from Hazard and De Bruyne.
For Italy, it failed to get anything going in 90 minutes against Austria and had just 6 shots on goal in 120 minutes. Both goals came in extra time. While the defense looked flawless in the Group Stage and has been a formidable side for years, Austria had 16 shots and got one in the back of the net late in extra time.
Belgium is a different animal, one with the attacking prowess of F Romelu Lukaku.
Expect Belgium to get something going against Italy. I think this game ends in extra time or penalty kicks with Belgium coming out on top.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET OVER 1.5 GOALS IN THE SECOND HALF (+145) because both sides like to do their work late.
Belgium has scored 8 goals in this tournament and 5 of them have come in the second half. Seven of Italy’s 9 goals have come in the second half or extra time.
While this bet is only for the second half, I think it gives better value than Over 2.5 (+130) for the full match. All it takes is for 1 goal early in the second half for this game to loosen up.
With substitutes and tired legs and goalies, the second half has produced big-time efforts. The teams don’t give up, and I’d bet that these two combine for a pair of goals in the second half.
They’ve done most of their work in the final 45 minutes, and that’s the bet I’d take for the Over. However, as with any total in soccer, only the most risk inclined should be looking into this one.
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