Games between power programs and FCS teams can be difficult to handicap.
The better team will often show mercy and take its foot off the gas, but not always, as evidenced by Oregon laying 81 points on Portland State in Week 1, the most that program has scored in a game since 1936.
Often, sports books choose to stay away entirely rather than set spreads of 40 or more points. But ESPN’s SP+ model casts no such aspersions.
Proprietor Bill Connelly releases the model’s score predictions every week for every game, and SP+ predicts quite a wide margin for LSU’s home opener against an in-state FCS opponent in Grambling, for which there is not currently a betting spread available.
WEEK 2 SP+ PICKS
Bama 34, Texas 21
ND 31, NC St 17
Rebs 33, Angry Wave 26
A&M 24, Miami 22
Oregon 38, Tex Tech 26
Wisconsin 28, Wazzu 23We're still very much in "ignore Colorado projections" mode. And maybe "ignore point totals" too. pic.twitter.com/A5osUWqkjw
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 5, 2023
SP+ sets the projected margin at 48.5 points, and it has the Tigers ultimately winning the game 54-5.
Grambling isn’t likely to score five points exactly in this one, but you get the picture. Despite LSU’s struggles in the opening loss to Florida State, its home opener at Tiger Stadium on Saturday night shouldn’t even be close.
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